30 Nov Sam Allardyce to summon his Premier League survival skills at Everton
Sam Allardyce has taken on the task of turning around Everton’s Premier League season.
Wednesday’s emphatic win over West Ham lifted the Toffees five points above the relegation zone and Allardyce’s track record – the 63-year-old has never been relegated from the top flight – suggests they will remain clear of danger.
The 63-year-old’s methods are familiar, based around organisation and defensive solidity, but what can the numbers tell us about his chances at Goodison Park?
Despite the Toffees’ ambitious summer recruitment and Wednesday’s strong performance, Allardyce inherits a team languishing in the bottom half of the table with just 15 points from 14 games.
Their goal totals at each end provide a marked similarity to a couple of his previous clubs upon his arrival:
Blackburn, 2008-09: 17 games, Scored 17 (1.00 per game), Conceded 34 (2.00 per game)
Sunderland, 2015-16: 8 games, Scored 8 (1.00 per game), Conceded 18 (2.25 per game)
Everton, 2017-18: 14 games, Scored 17 (1.07 per game), Conceded 28 (2.00 per game)
Allardyce improved Rovers’ goals against ratio to 1.24 per game for the remainder of the season en route to a 15th-placed finish, and the Black Cats’ to 1.47 as they finished one place above the drop zone.
The pattern was similar, though less pronounced, at Palace last season as the Eagles improved from 1.88 to 1.48 goals conceded per game after Allardyce’s arrival.
With the personnel available to him at Everton – experienced centre-backs Phil Jagielka, Ashley Williams and Michael Keane, plus Leighton Baines manning one full-back spot and Seamus Coleman progressing in his recovery from a broken leg on the other side – he surely has the tools to engineer an upturn once more.
Allardyce’s managerial career includes 488 Premier League games with Bolton, Newcastle, Blackburn, West Ham, Sunderland and Crystal Palace.
His teams have won 165, drawn 131 and lost 192 of those, meaning he has a 33.8 per cent win ratio while drawing 26.8 per cent of his games.
Taking charge of Everton after 14 games, he has 24 remaining to work his magic.
If he lives up to his career ratios that would translate to just over eight wins, six or seven draws and nine or 10 defeats, adding up to around 31 points which would leave Everton comfortable on 46.
West Ham’s 42 points in 2002-03 is the highest tally for a relegated team since the top flight was cut to 20 teams while over the last 10 seasons, the teams finishing 18th have averaged 35 points.