Analysing a player’s goal tally is one way to work out what sort of form they’re in, but the FPL has a number of handy metrics to help managers look beneath the surface-level data.
The Threat metric measures the quality of chance a player enjoys in front of goal, with around 100 Threat historically equating to a goal’s worth of chances.
By looking at a player’s Threat scores then, one can find out whether their performances should have yielded more goals.
The above chart shows that some players have been putting in the performances, but not reaping the benefits – so who might be ready to come good in front of goal?
Leading our chart is Liverpool’s Roberto Firmino, who should have scored 5.3 goals more than he has done this season according to his Threat tally.
The £9.1m man ranks third of all forwards for Threat, but just 17th for goals scored after a difficult season which has seen the Reds mount a weak title defence.
The Brazilian has scored well in the Threat stakes since his last goal however, registering a phenomenal score of 124 against Leicester in GW24 for example.
Averaging 20.2 FPL goal involvements (goals or assists) over the past five seasons, Firmino’s current tally of six goals and six assists this season is modest – but if Liverpool’s luck turns, his Threat scores suggest he could be one of the main beneficiaries.
Elsewhere, Timo Werner has endured a similarly frustrating season in front of goal – but things look a little more difficult to turn around for the Chelsea man.
Like Firmino, Werner should have scored around double his actual goal tally this season in the Premier League – having scored just once since GW8, his problems look more serious.
Werner has managed good Threat scores during his lengthy drought, including five scores of 50 or more – his status as a new player at Stamford Bridge however may work against him, should the goals continue to elude him.
In midfield, two pricey options are also underperforming in the goals department: Sadio Mane (£11.8m) and Kevin De Bruyne (£11.9m).
Mane has managed 120 FPL points despite his profligacy – he has scored seven goals when his Threat numbers say he should have scored 11.6.
Assist king Kevin De Bruyne meanwhile falls 3.9 goals short of his Threat numbers, but with a brace against Southampton in his latest PL appearance, could make up for it in the final gameweeks of the season.
If you’re after a bargain however, Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka could scratch that itch.
The young winger scored four goals in six games from GW15 to GW20, but hasn’t found the net since – with five goals this season, his Threat total suggests he could have scored 8.8.
At £5.3m – and with Arsenal only fighting on two fronts – the promising Gunner could be worth backing.
So far we have looked at the goalscorers who should be netting more – but what about those players who have yet to score at all this season?
Aston Villa’s Trezeguet managed Threat scores of 69, 39, 91 and 47 before a head injury kept him off the pitch for a number of matches.
With consistent minutes in GW27, GW28 and GW29, the £5.2m midfielder could be worth a look towards the end of the season – his Threat total suggests he should have scored four goals already.
Elsewhere, Wolves’ Adama Traore has failed to hit the heights of last season, with zero goals despite consistent time on the pitch.
Traore has registered just one Threat score of more than 50 this season, despite almost 2000 minutes of playing time – at £6m, he looks to represent worse value than Trezeguet.