Aberdeen host a Hibernian side without a win in five
Harvey Watkins looks at the recent form of Aberdeen and Hibernian, their September draw and what PLZ Predictor members expect at Pittodrie.
By Harvey Watkins,
Aberdeen and Hibernian meet at Pittodrie on Saturday evening, kick-off 17:45, and neither arrives in good form. Between them they have one win from their last five matches each. That win belongs to Aberdeen.
The clearest pattern is at the back. Neither side has kept a clean sheet in that run, and both have conceded seven. The goals at the other end are where they differ.
Aberdeen's form at home and away
Aberdeen's last five read lost, lost, won, lost, drawn, most recent first. They have scored six and conceded seven. That is not a heavy deficit, but the losses have been close ones that went the wrong way.
Their three most recent home matches cut both ways. They beat St. Mirren 3-1 on 17 October. Either side of that came 1-0 defeats at Pittodrie to St. Johnstone and Falkirk, and they failed to score in both. On the road they lost 3-2 at Dundee United, which shows they can score but also that they can be opened up.
The St. Mirren result is the one that stands apart. Whether it was the exception or a sign of what Aberdeen can do at home is hard to say from three matches.
Hibernian are struggling to score more than once
Hibernian's sequence is drawn, lost, lost, lost, drawn. They have four goals in five matches and have not scored more than once in any of them. Three of those matches ended in single-goal defeats: 2-1 at home to Celtic, 2-1 at home to Falkirk and 1-0 at Dundee United.
Their most recent outing, a 1-1 draw at St. Mirren on 28 October, stopped a run of three defeats but did not end the wait for a win. On the road in this run they have a draw and a narrow loss.
The shared opponents give a rough comparison. Falkirk beat both clubs by a single goal. Dundee United beat both. Against St. Mirren, Aberdeen won 3-1 at home while Hibernian drew 1-1 away. That leans slightly towards Aberdeen, though venue accounts for some of it and the margins are small throughout.
The September meeting
The only recent meeting was on 19 September, when Hibernian hosted Aberdeen and the match finished 1-1. That is a single result, and it would be a stretch to read much into it beyond the fact that neither side could find a second goal. On current form that would not be a surprise from either team.
What PLZ Predictor members expect
Thirteen PLZ Soccer members have entered this fixture in the PLZ Predictor. Of those, 46 per cent have gone for a Hibernian win, 38 per cent for an Aberdeen win and 15 per cent for a draw. The most commonly predicted score is 1-2, chosen by four members. These are our members' picks, not a forecast, and with thirteen entries the split could shift a good deal before kick-off.
The view
Both sides concede regularly, which suggests goals at both ends are more likely than a shut-out. Aberdeen have the home advantage and the one convincing result between these two runs, while Hibernian have not managed more than a goal a game in five attempts.
My view is that Aberdeen are marginally better placed, but only marginally. Their two home defeats in this run came without a goal, and a narrow result either way, or another draw like September's, would fit what both teams have been producing.