Aberdeen v Falkirk preview: form favours the visitors
Falkirk arrive at Pittodrie with three wins from five and goals in every game; Aberdeen's recent run has been far less settled.
By Harvey Watkins,
The thing that shapes this one is the direction of travel. Falkirk come to Pittodrie having won three of their last five and both of their most recent matches. Aberdeen have alternated between defeat and recovery, and they lost their last outing. On recent results, the visitors arrive in the better shape, though the gap is narrower than the sequences suggest.
Aberdeen: goals, but no rhythm
Aberdeen's last five read L W L D W, most recent first, for two wins, a draw and two defeats. They have scored ten and conceded six, which looks healthy. Four of those ten came in a single afternoon, the 4-0 win at Motherwell on 15 September. Across the other four matches they managed six.
The more recent picture is mixed. A 3-1 home win over St. Mirren on 17 October was followed by a 3-2 defeat at Dundee United on 24 October, a game in which they scored twice and still came away with nothing. Before that came a 1-0 home defeat to St. Johnstone, the only match in this run in which they failed to score. Their two recent home games produced one win and one loss. The Motherwell win is their only clean sheet in five.
Falkirk: scoring in every match
Falkirk's sequence is W W L D W, also most recent first. They have nine goals for and five against, and they have scored in all five matches. Their latest result was the most convincing, a 3-0 home win over Kilmarnock on 24 October, which brought their only clean sheet of the run.
The week before, they won 2-1 at Hibernian. Their one defeat came at home, 2-1 to Dundee FC on 10 October, and they also beat Hearts 2-1 at home in September. On the road in this spell they have a win and a draw, the draw coming at St. Johnstone.
Two shared opponents
Both sides have faced Hibernian and St. Johnstone in their last five, which offers a rough point of comparison. Aberdeen drew 1-1 at Hibernian; Falkirk won 2-1 there. Aberdeen lost 1-0 at home to St. Johnstone; Falkirk drew 1-1 away to them. Different venues and dates make this a loose guide rather than a verdict, but in both cases Falkirk took more from the fixture.
What the evidence suggests
Five matches is a short run, and neither record is dominant. Aberdeen have shown they can score heavily and recover quickly from defeat, and they have home advantage. Falkirk's consistency in front of goal and their stronger recent results make them the side in better form. Both defences have kept only one clean sheet apiece, so goals at both ends would fit the pattern. My view is that this is closer than a home fixture might imply, and a draw or an away result would not be a surprise. Aberdeen winning would not be one either.
What PLZ members predict
Twenty-eight PLZ Soccer members have entered this fixture in the PLZ Predictor. Of those, 61 per cent have gone for an Aberdeen win, 25 per cent for a draw and 14 per cent for a Falkirk win. The most popular scoreline is 2-1, chosen by ten members. These are our readers' predictions, not odds, and they lean more firmly towards the home side than recent results do.