Celtic seek a first win in three as Kilmarnock visit
Recent form, the goals record of both sides, the one previous meeting this season and what PLZ Predictor members expect from Sunday's game at Celtic Park.
By Harvey Watkins,
The most useful thing to know before Sunday is that Celtic arrive without a win in their last two. A 2-2 draw at home to Dundee United was followed by a 2-0 defeat at Falkirk on 1 November, the only one of their last five in which they failed to score. That does not undo what came before it, but it does mean this is a side looking to stop a small slide rather than extend a run.
Celtic's form in context
Before those two games Celtic won three in a row: 2-0 at Motherwell, 7-1 at home to Hearts and 2-1 at Hibernian. Across the five matches they have scored 13 and conceded six. The Hearts result does a lot of the work in that scoring figure. Take it out and Celtic have six goals in four, a steadier rate of one and a half per game.
At the other end, they have kept one clean sheet in five, at Motherwell, and conceded twice in each of the last two. That is not alarming on its own, but it is a change from the earlier part of the sequence.
Kilmarnock's difficulties away from home
Kilmarnock's last five read one win, one draw and three defeats, with seven scored and 13 conceded. They have not kept a clean sheet in that spell and have let in at least two goals in every match.
The pattern on the road is the clearest part of their record. Their three away games in this run were all lost, 3-1 at Rangers, 3-0 at Falkirk and 3-1 at Dundee FC, conceding three each time. Their only win came at home, 3-2 against Motherwell, and their most recent outing was a 2-2 home draw with St. Johnstone.
There is something to set against that. Kilmarnock have scored in four of their last five, and only Falkirk kept them out. Both sides lost at Falkirk in recent weeks, Celtic by two goals and Kilmarnock by three, which is a reminder that a single result can sit awkwardly with an otherwise strong run.
The previous meeting
These sides met on 9 August, when Celtic won 5-1 at Kilmarnock. It is the only recent meeting, so it says something about the gap between the teams on that day but cannot carry much weight as a trend on its own.
What PLZ Predictor members expect
Twelve PLZ Soccer members have entered this fixture in the PLZ Predictor, and every one of them has picked a Celtic win. The most common scoreline among those entries is 3-1, chosen by four people. These are our members' predictions, not odds, and with twelve entries they are a snapshot of opinion rather than anything more.
The assessment
On the evidence, Celtic are entitled to be favoured. They are at home, they have scored freely for most of the past month, and Kilmarnock have conceded three in each of their recent away games. My view is that Celtic should have enough.
The caveats are real, though. Celtic have gone two without a win and have been conceding, while Kilmarnock usually find a goal from somewhere. A Kilmarnock goal would not be a surprise, and if Celtic's recent wobble continues, a closer afternoon than the August meeting is entirely possible.