Dundee FC and Kilmarnock meet with identical recent records
Both sides have two wins, a draw and two defeats from their last five, but the goals and the venues tell different stories ahead of Wednesday at Dens Park.
By Harvey Watkins,
On the surface there is nothing to separate Dundee FC and Kilmarnock. Each has won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five league matches, and each lost on Saturday. Look at the goals, and at where those results came, and the picture shifts. Dundee FC are eight scored and eight conceded over that run. Kilmarnock are six scored and nine conceded, and the gap is almost entirely down to their away form.
Dundee FC: tight games, goals at both ends
Dundee FC's recent matches have followed a pattern. They have scored in all five and conceded in all five, so there has been no clean sheet. Every one of those games has finished level or been settled by a single goal, and every one has produced at least three goals.
The best of it came at Dens Park, a 2-1 win over Motherwell and a 2-2 draw with Rangers, along with a 2-1 win away to Falkirk. The defeats have been narrow ones on the road: 2-1 at Hearts and 2-1 at St. Mirren on Saturday. This is a side that is rarely out of a match but also rarely comfortable in one.
Kilmarnock: sturdier at home than away
Kilmarnock's two home matches in this run brought a 3-2 win over Motherwell and a 1-1 draw with Hearts. Away from home the returns have been more uneven. They won 1-0 at Hibernian, their only clean sheet of the five, but lost 3-1 to Rangers and 3-0 to Falkirk on Saturday. That leaves two goals scored and six conceded across their three away games.
The Hibernian result shows they can keep things tight on the road. The two heavier defeats either side of it are the reason for caution, and the most recent of them is the most emphatic.
Four shared opponents
Unusually, four of each side's last five opponents are the same, which offers a rough point of comparison. Dundee FC won at Falkirk, where Kilmarnock lost 3-0. Dundee FC drew with Rangers at home, while Kilmarnock lost away to them. Both beat Motherwell at home. The one that runs the other way is Hearts: Dundee FC lost there, while Kilmarnock held them at home.
The venues and dates differ, so this is suggestive rather than conclusive. On balance, though, it reads slightly in Dundee FC's favour.
What PLZ Predictor members expect
Twenty-eight PLZ Soccer members have entered this fixture in the PLZ Predictor. Of those, 79 per cent have gone for a Dundee FC win and 21 per cent for a draw. Nobody has picked Kilmarnock. The most popular scoreline is 2-1, chosen by 10 members. That is a snapshot of our members' opinions, not a forecast, and it carries no information about the teams beyond what they already know.
How it looks
The evidence leans modestly towards the home side. Dundee FC have taken four points from their two home games, and Kilmarnock's away numbers are the weakest part of either record. That is a lean rather than a conviction. Dundee FC have not kept a clean sheet in five, every one of their games has been close, and Kilmarnock have already shown at Hibernian that they can win away from home.
Five matches is a thin basis for anything firmer. If the recent pattern holds, goals at both ends look more likely than a shutout, and a narrow margin either way would fit what both sides have been producing.