Edinburgh City's shared opponents point the way at Station Park
Forfar Athletic host Edinburgh City after four straight defeats. Results against three common opponents explain why the visitors look the steadier side.
By Barrie Moran,
Forfar Athletic have lost four in a row, and that alone frames this game. The more telling detail is who did the beating. Three of the sides that have beaten Forfar since the start of October have also played Edinburgh City in the same spell. City took seven points from those three matches. Forfar took none.
The common opponents
- Kelty Hearts: beat Forfar 2-1 on 17 October. City won 3-1 at Kelty on 19 September.
- Elgin City: won 2-1 at Station Park on 10 October. City drew 0-0 at Elgin a week later.
- Dumbarton: beat Forfar 2-1 on 3 October. City beat Dumbarton 2-1 last Saturday.
The venues do not line up perfectly, and three games is a small sample. This is a pointer, not proof. But it points the same way three times, and that is hard to wave away.
Forfar's run
The pattern in Forfar's defeats is worth spelling out. Three of the four finished 2-1, and they scored in every one. That reads like a side close enough to be in games but not quite able to hold on to them. Then came the 5-2 defeat at Stirling Albion on 31 October, which is a different kind of result altogether. Five of the eleven goals they have shipped in their last five came that afternoon.
Their only win and only clean sheet in that run was the 1-0 against Annan Athletic on 19 September. They have conceded at least twice in each match since. They will score, on this evidence, since they have managed at least one in all five. Stopping the other side is the problem.
Edinburgh City's run
City's five read W D L D W, with six scored and five conceded. Their away form is the strong part: a win at Kelty and goalless draws at Stranraer and Elgin, so unbeaten on the road in three with two clean sheets. The one defeat came at home, a 3-1 loss to Spartans on 10 October.
The caveat is goals. Three of their six came in one match at Kelty, and they failed to score in both of those away draws. This is a side that keeps games tight more than one that runs away with them.
The previous meeting
The only recent meeting finished Edinburgh City 1-1 Forfar Athletic on 28 August. One draw on the other side's ground tells you these two were level then. It does not tell you much about now, and Forfar's form has turned since.
Verdict
My view is that Edinburgh City are the likelier side to come away with something. Their road record in this spell is tidy, Forfar have conceded twice or more in four straight, and the common opponents favour City in all three cases. I would not be surprised by a draw, given how little City have scored away from Kelty, but I would be surprised by a comfortable home win.
What would change my mind is Forfar's back line. They have shown they can find a goal. If they reproduce anything like the Annan performance and keep City out, their run of 2-1 defeats starts to look like bad luck rather than a habit. Until that happens, the record says otherwise.