Falkirk bring four straight wins to Tynecastle
Hearts host a Falkirk side who have won four in a row, including a 2-0 win over Celtic. We look at form, the September meeting and what PLZ members expect.
By Harvey Watkins,
Falkirk arrive at Tynecastle on Sunday having won each of their last four matches, and the most recent of those was a 2-0 home win over Celtic. That run matters more to this fixture than anything else, and it makes Falkirk difficult to treat as the side simply making up the numbers.
Falkirk's winning run
The sequence reads Hibernian 1-2 Falkirk, Falkirk 3-0 Kilmarnock, Aberdeen 0-1 Falkirk and Falkirk 2-0 Celtic. They have conceded once in those four games and kept three clean sheets. Two of the wins came away from home, which is relevant given where they are playing on Sunday.
There are qualifications. The one defeat in their last five was at home, 2-1 to Dundee FC on 10 October, so they can be beaten. Their scoring is steady rather than overwhelming, with nine goals in five games, and both away wins were by a single goal. The defensive record has carried this run more than the attacking one.
Hearts are harder to read
Hearts' last five go D W L W D, with 11 goals scored and 10 conceded. Those totals are dominated by one afternoon: the 7-1 defeat at Celtic on 18 October. Outside that game Hearts are unbeaten in four, scoring ten and conceding three, including a 5-0 win over St. Mirren and a 2-0 win at Motherwell.
A heavy defeat cannot simply be set aside, and two wins from five is a modest return. But the broader picture is of a side who score freely when things go their way. Their two most recent home matches produced a 5-0 win and a 2-2 draw with Rangers, and they have scored at least once in every one of their last five games.
The two clubs share two recent opponents. Hearts lost 7-1 at Celtic, while Falkirk beat Celtic 2-0 at home. Hearts drew 1-1 at Kilmarnock, while Falkirk beat Kilmarnock 3-0 at home. The venues and dates differ, so this is a loose comparison, but both results point the same way.
The September meeting
The most recent meeting was on 15 September, when Falkirk won 2-1 at home. One match is a thin basis for any conclusion, and Sunday's game is at Tynecastle rather than Falkirk. The main thing it shows is that Falkirk have already beaten Hearts this season.
What PLZ members are predicting
Twelve PLZ Soccer members have entered this fixture in the PLZ Predictor. Of those, 67 per cent expect a Hearts win, 25 per cent a draw and 8 per cent a Falkirk win. The most commonly predicted scoreline is 2-1, picked by five members. These are our readers' predictions, not odds, and with twelve entries they are a small snapshot of opinion.
Assessment
On recent results Falkirk are the side in better shape. Four straight wins, one goal conceded in that spell and a victory over Hearts in September make a reasonable case. Hearts' home scoring and their record outside the Celtic game make the case for them, and a team that scores this often will always create problems for a defence.
My view, held loosely, is that Falkirk's defensive form makes a tight game more likely than an open one, and a draw would not be a surprise. Five matches of form and one previous meeting leave plenty of room for Hearts to settle it on their own ground.