Kelty Hearts face a Stranraer side who have stopped conceding
Barrie Moran looks at the form, the shared opponents and the one previous meeting ahead of Kelty Hearts against Stranraer in League Two.
By Barrie Moran,
One line from Stranraer's recent run tells you most of what you need to know. The only side to score against them in their last five matches was Annan Athletic, and Annan lost 6-1. Stranraer have kept four clean sheets in five, conceding a single goal in that spell, and they arrive at New Central Park on Saturday unbeaten across all five.
Kelty Hearts are in decent nick themselves, with three wins from five. But their record has a stop-start look to it, W L W L W. By that pattern alone this would be a defeat, though I wouldn't lean on a sequence of five results to tell me anything.
Two very different runs
Stranraer's form splits neatly in two. When they have scored, they have scored freely: 3-0 at home to Stirling Albion, 2-0 at Spartans and that 6-1 at Annan. When they haven't, the game has finished 0-0, against Clyde and Edinburgh City. Their last five contain no narrow wins and no narrow losses. Either they take a game apart or nobody scores at all.
Kelty's matches have been tighter affairs. They won 2-1 at Annan, 2-1 at home to Forfar Athletic and 2-0 at Spartans, and lost 2-1 at Stirling Albion and 1-0 at home to Elgin City. Seven scored and five conceded across the five games is a respectable return, but it is a side winning by small margins, and losing by them too.
The home results are worth a second look. Kelty's two most recent games at New Central Park brought a win over Forfar and a defeat to Elgin, in which they failed to score. That's too little to call a trend, but it is not the record of a ground opponents dread.
The shared opponents
Both sides have played Annan Athletic, Spartans and Stirling Albion recently, and the comparison flatters Stranraer. They won all three, scoring 11 and conceding one. Kelty won two and lost one, scoring five and conceding three.
Taken match by match, the gap is clearer still. At Spartans the two sides did exactly the same, each winning 2-0. At Annan, Kelty edged it 2-1 while Stranraer won by five. Against Stirling Albion, Kelty lost 2-1 away from home and Stranraer won 3-0 at home. The venues differ, and three games is a small sample, but in none of the three did Kelty do better.
The previous meeting
These two met on 29 August, and Stranraer won 2-0 at home. That's the only recent meeting, and I wouldn't build much on one result from late summer. Still, it is consistent with everything else: Stranraer won and kept a clean sheet.
The verdict
My view is that Stranraer avoid defeat. Their defensive record over the last five is the strongest thing about this fixture, and Kelty have already been held scoreless at home once in their recent run. Given how Stranraer's games tend to go, I'd also not be surprised by a low-scoring afternoon, with a goalless draw at least as plausible as a home win.
What would change my mind is Kelty scoring first. Stranraer have not had to chase a game in their last five, and nothing in their recent results shows how they handle going behind. Kelty have shown they can win tight matches by a goal. If they get one, this becomes a different contest.
But on form, on the shared opponents and on the one previous meeting, Stranraer are the side with the better case.