St. Johnstone v Motherwell: winless visitors head to McDiarmid Park
Motherwell arrive in Perth on five straight defeats, but St. Johnstone's own scoring record suggests this may be closer than the form lines imply.
By Harvey Watkins,
The headline number is hard to look past. Motherwell have lost each of their last five matches, scoring three goals and conceding 13, without a clean sheet in that run. St. Johnstone, who host them at McDiarmid Park on Wednesday evening, have hardly been prolific themselves, but one win, two draws and two defeats looks considerably healthier by comparison.
Look a little closer, though, and the gap between the sides is narrower in some places than the sequences suggest.
St. Johnstone: solid against most, short of goals
St. Johnstone's five-match record of three scored and eight conceded is skewed heavily by their meetings with the Old Firm. Half of those goals against came in one evening, a 4-0 defeat at Rangers last Friday, and a 2-0 home loss to Celtic accounts for two more.
Strip those two fixtures out and the picture is tidier: unbeaten in three, with a 1-0 win at Aberdeen either side of 1-1 home draws with Falkirk and Dundee United. That is three goals conceded in three games that did not involve Glasgow opposition, and one clean sheet.
The caveat is at the other end. St. Johnstone have not scored more than once in any of their last five matches, and their three most recent home games have produced two draws and a defeat. Defensive steadiness has not yet been matched by much of an attacking return.
Motherwell: a run that is harder to explain away
Motherwell's run includes home defeats to Celtic and Hearts, both 2-0, which few would treat as alarming on their own. Less comfortable is the 4-0 loss at home to Aberdeen in mid-September, particularly as St. Johnstone went to Pittodrie a month later and won.
The comparison with Celtic is level: both sides lost 2-0 at home to them in this period. It is Aberdeen where the two records part company most sharply.
There is a more encouraging thread for Motherwell. All three of their goals in this run came away from home, in narrow defeats at Dundee FC (2-1) and Kilmarnock (3-2). They have failed to score in each of their last three home games, but on the road they have at least kept matches close and found the net. Those away defeats also came with goals conceded in both, which will not have escaped St. Johnstone's attention given their own difficulty creating chances.
What the PLZ Predictor shows
Twenty-eight PLZ Soccer members have entered their predictions for this match in the PLZ Predictor. Of those, 54 per cent have gone for a St. Johnstone win, 39 per cent for a draw and 7 per cent for a Motherwell win. The most commonly predicted score is 1-1, chosen by 11 members. It is a small sample and a snapshot of member opinion rather than anything more.
The view
On form, St. Johnstone are the better-placed side, and Motherwell's run gives little reason to expect a sudden turnaround. But with St. Johnstone scoring sparingly and Motherwell having scored in both recent away trips, this does not look like a fixture to assume will be one-sided. A narrow home win seems the likeliest outcome to me, with a draw well within reach if the hosts' goals continue to dry up. Five matches is a short window, and either side could make it look misleading.