Motherwell v Hearts: winless hosts face a side yet to win away
Motherwell have lost five in a row and Hearts arrive after a 7-1 defeat. A look at recent form, shared opponents and what PLZ members expect.
By Harvey Watkins,
The headline numbers point one way. Motherwell have lost their last five league matches, scoring three goals and conceding 12. Hearts have won two, drawn one and lost two over the same stretch. Beneath that, though, there is a detail that complicates the picture. Neither of Hearts' recent wins came away from home.
Motherwell's run in detail
Five straight defeats is a poor sequence by any measure, but the pattern within it matters. Three of the losses were by a single goal, all on the road: 1-0 at Rangers, 2-1 at Dundee FC and 3-2 at Kilmarnock last time out. The two goals at Rugby Park were the most Motherwell have scored in any of those five games.
The home results are the bigger concern. Motherwell lost 4-0 to Aberdeen and 2-0 to Celtic at Fir Park and failed to score in either. Two matches is a small sample, but a side that has not found the net at home in its last two outings there will need to change that against a Hearts team that has conceded freely of late.
Hearts: strong at home, less so on the road
Hearts come into this game off the back of a 7-1 defeat at Celtic. A single heavy loss to the champions-level opposition at Celtic Park can distort a five-game record, and it accounts for seven of the 11 goals Hearts have conceded in that run. Take it out and their defensive record looks far steadier.
The split between home and away is harder to explain away. At Tynecastle, Hearts beat Dundee FC 2-1 and St. Mirren 5-0. Away from it, they lost 2-1 at Falkirk, drew 1-1 at Kilmarnock and were beaten heavily at Celtic. Seven of their ten goals in the last five came at home. That does not make them underdogs here, but it does suggest the gap between these sides may be narrower on the day than the form table implies.
Shared opponents
Both clubs have faced Kilmarnock, Celtic and Dundee FC recently, which offers a rough comparison:
- Kilmarnock: Motherwell lost 3-2 away; Hearts drew 1-1 away.
- Celtic: Motherwell lost 2-0 at home; Hearts lost 7-1 away.
- Dundee FC: Motherwell lost 2-1 away; Hearts won 2-1 at home.
On that evidence Hearts have done slightly better, though the margins are small and the venues differ. Motherwell's defeat to Celtic was considerably more respectable than Hearts' at Celtic Park.
What PLZ members think
Thirty-two members have entered this fixture in the PLZ Predictor. Three-quarters, 75 per cent, have gone for a Hearts win, with 13 per cent backing Motherwell and 13 per cent a draw. The most popular scoreline is a 2-1 away win, written 1-2, chosen by 17 entrants, more than half of the total. That is a snapshot of how our members see the game rather than anything more.
The assessment
Hearts are the stronger side on recent results and Motherwell's goalscoring at home has dried up. My view is that the visitors should be favoured. But Hearts have not won away in their last five, are coming off a damaging defeat, and Motherwell have been losing close games rather than being swept aside on their travels. A home side this short of points will not need much to make a contest of it, and a narrow outcome either way would not be a surprise.