Queen of the South's home leaks meet East Kilbride's away form
Queen of the South have conceded ten in two home games. East Kilbride's wins have all come on the road. A preview of Saturday's League One meeting at Palmerston.
By Barrie Moran,
Queen of the South have kept two clean sheets in their last five matches, which sounds respectable until you check where they came. Both were away from home, 1-0 at Peterhead and 1-0 at Alloa Athletic. In their last two matches at Palmerston Park they have conceded ten.
Two different sides in one form line
The 7-1 defeat by Ross County on 17 October will bend any set of numbers, so it is fair to set it aside for a moment. Without it, Queen of the South have scored six and conceded five across the other four. That is a decent return. But the other home game in that run was a 4-3 win over Cove Rangers, which is entertaining and no kind of foundation.
Away from Dumfries the picture is tidier. The one defeat on the road was 2-0 at East Fife last Saturday. Three wins from five with a goal difference of minus five describes a team that has been winning more than its defending deserves. The problem is that the defending has been worst at home, and that is where they are this weekend.
East Kilbride travel better than they host
East Kilbride's form runs almost the other way. Their last three matches were all at home and they won none of them: 2-2 with Airdrieonians, 1-1 with Montrose and a 2-1 defeat by Ross County. Their two wins in this run both came away, 3-0 at East Fife and 2-1 at Alloa Athletic. That is five scored and one conceded on their travels.
Overall they have nine goals for and six against across the five, with one defeat. It is steadier than Queen of the South's run, if less eye-catching in the results column.
Three opponents in common
Both sides have recently played East Fife, Alloa Athletic and Ross County, and the comparison is worth a look, with the usual warning that these games came on different weekends.
- East Fife away: East Kilbride won 3-0, Queen of the South lost 2-0.
- Alloa Athletic away: both won, Queen of the South 1-0, East Kilbride 2-1.
- Ross County at home: East Kilbride lost 2-1, Queen of the South lost 7-1.
It is a crude measure, but every line of it either favours East Kilbride or comes out level.
The only meeting so far
These sides met on 1 August, and East Kilbride won 5-1 at home. One match in the opening weeks of a season should not be stretched too far. It does sit comfortably alongside everything else, though: when Queen of the South have lost lately, they have tended to lose heavily.
Verdict
I lean towards East Kilbride. Their away form in this run is the best thing either side has to show, and it meets the weakest thing either side has to show, which is Queen of the South's defending at home.
It is not a confident lean. East Kilbride have gone three without a win, and Queen of the South have twice shown in the last month that they can grind out a 1-0. If this turns into the tight, low-scoring game they have managed at Alloa and Peterhead, the home side can win it. If it looks anything like their last two afternoons at Palmerston, East Kilbride should have enough.