Spartans' all-or-nothing scoring meets Clyde at New Douglas Park
Clyde host Spartans in League Two, with recent form, common opponents and August's 3-3 draw pointing one way, if not by much.
By Barrie Moran,
Spartans have developed a habit that makes them very easy to read and very hard to predict. In their last five league matches they have scored three goals in each of their wins and none at all in each of their defeats. They beat Annan Athletic 3-2 and Edinburgh City 3-1. They lost 2-0 to Stranraer, 2-0 to Kelty Hearts and 3-0 at Dumbarton. There is no middle ground. Which version arrives at New Douglas Park on Saturday is most of the question.
Clyde's record and the afternoon in Elgin
On the surface Clyde's last five look like a side treading water: two wins, two draws, a defeat, nine scored and nine conceded. But six of those nine goals against came in one afternoon, a 6-2 defeat at Elgin City on 3 October. Take that away and Clyde have conceded three in four, including a clean sheet in last weekend's 0-0 at Stranraer.
You cannot simply wish a six-goal hiding out of the record, and nobody at Clyde would thank me for pretending it did not happen. What matters is what came after it. Clyde are unbeaten in three since, beating Dumbarton 2-1 and Annan Athletic 4-1 before that draw at Stranraer. Both of those wins came at home, six goals scored in the two.
Spartans and the missing middle
Two wins and three defeats, six scored and ten conceded, and no clean sheet in five. The scoring pattern is the striking part, but the defensive one matters too. Spartans have conceded in every one of those matches, so Clyde can reasonably expect to find the net at some point. The encouragement for Spartans is that they come into this off a win, edging Annan 3-2 last time out, and that their one recent away win, at Edinburgh City, was a convincing one.
Three common opponents, one clear pattern
Both sides have played Stranraer, Dumbarton and Annan Athletic in this run, and Clyde come out ahead on all three. Clyde drew 0-0 at Stranraer, while Spartans lost 2-0 to them at home. Clyde beat Dumbarton 2-1 at home, while Spartans lost 3-0 away to them. Both beat Annan, Clyde 4-1 and Spartans 3-2. Venues differ and these are single matches, so it is a pointer rather than proof, but it is a consistent pointer.
The last meeting
When the sides met on 29 August, it finished Spartans 3-3 Clyde. That fits the Spartans pattern neatly, three goals on a day they did not lose, and it fits a Clyde defence that was capable of leaking goals early in the season. It is one match, played more than two months ago at the other ground, so I would not lean on it too heavily.
Verdict
Clyde, narrowly. They are at home, where they have won both of their recent matches, they have tightened up since Elgin, and they have done better than Spartans against every opponent the two have in common. Spartans' failure to keep a clean sheet in five suggests Clyde will score.
What would make me wrong is the Spartans who scored three at Edinburgh City turning up, against a Clyde back line that looks more like the one at Elgin than the one at Stranraer. Spartans are not toothless: they have scored three in two of their last five. If they score, history says they tend to score plenty, and that is enough to keep me from being any more confident than this.