Unbeaten Rangers face a St. Mirren side short of clean sheets
St. Mirren host Rangers on Saturday night. We look at both sides' recent form, the September meeting and how PLZ Predictor members see it.
By Harvey Watkins,
The figure that frames this fixture is eleven. That is how many goals St. Mirren have conceded in their last five matches, without a clean sheet in any of them. Rangers arrive at The SMISA Stadium unbeaten across the same span, with twelve goals scored. On recent evidence the gap between the sides is wide, though the detail is a little more nuanced than the totals suggest.
St. Mirren's recent form
St. Mirren's last five read L D W L L: one win, one draw, three defeats, four goals scored and eleven conceded. A large share of that damage came in one afternoon. The 5-0 defeat at Hearts on 10 October accounts for almost half the goals against. Remove it and the remaining four matches show six conceded, which is still not tight but is a more ordinary picture.
The split between home and away matters here. All three defeats came on the road, at Hearts, Aberdeen and most recently Motherwell, where they lost 1-0 on 31 October. At home they have been harder to beat, edging Dundee FC 2-1 and drawing 1-1 with Hibernian. That is a small sample, but it is the strongest point in their favour going into a home fixture.
Rangers' recent form
Rangers' sequence is D W D W W: three wins, two draws, twelve scored and five conceded, with two clean sheets. The wins include a 1-0 victory at Celtic in September and a 4-0 home win over St. Johnstone.
The caveat is away from home. Their two draws both came on their travels, 2-2 at Dundee FC and 2-2 at Hearts on 28 October. Across their three away matches in this run they have conceded four, compared with one in two home games. They have scored freely wherever they have played, but they have not been watertight on the road.
Shared opponents
Two opponents feature in both runs, and they offer a rough comparison. At Hearts, St. Mirren lost 5-0 while Rangers drew 2-2. Against Dundee FC, St. Mirren won 2-1 at home while Rangers drew 2-2 away. Different venues and dates limit how much weight that can carry, but the Dundee FC result suggests St. Mirren's home form deserves some respect.
The previous meeting
The most recent meeting was on 9 September, when Rangers won 1-0 at home. That is a single match and a narrow one, so it says little beyond the fact that St. Mirren kept the margin to a goal on that occasion.
What PLZ Predictor members think
Thirteen PLZ Soccer members have entered this fixture in the PLZ Predictor so far. Of those, 77 per cent have gone for an away win, 15 per cent for a draw and 8 per cent for a home win. The most common scoreline is 1-2, chosen by four members. It is a small group and a snapshot of members' opinion rather than a guide to the outcome.
Assessment
Rangers' form is clearly the stronger, and their scoring record across five matches stands out. Against that, St. Mirren have been more solid at home than their overall numbers imply, and Rangers have dropped points on two of their last three trips. A Rangers win looks the more likely result on this evidence, but St. Mirren's home record gives them a reasonable case for making it close.