Stirling Albion v Elgin City: identical form, very different months
Stirling Albion and Elgin City arrive at Forthbank with the same five-match sequence, but the results behind it, and August's 4-0, tell different stories.
By Barrie Moran,
Read the form guides for Stirling Albion and Elgin City side by side and you would think someone had made a copying error. Both read L W D W W. Both sides have won three, drawn one and lost one of their last five. Both have scored nine. Both lost last weekend without scoring. You could hardly ask for a tidier coincidence, and you would learn almost nothing from it, because the matches underneath look nothing alike.
Stirling Albion's recent results
Stirling come into this off a 3-0 defeat at Stranraer, the heaviest result in their last five. Before that, though, they were in decent nick. They beat Annan Athletic 1-0 away and Kelty Hearts 2-1 at home, drew 1-1 at Dumbarton and then put five past Forfar Athletic in a 5-2 win at Forthbank. Nine scored and seven conceded, with only one clean sheet, suggests a side that will give you a game at both ends. Both home matches in this run were won.
Elgin City's recent results
Elgin's nine goals need a wee asterisk. The 6-2 win over Clyde on 3 October does a lot of the lifting. Since then their results have been 2-1 at Forfar, a 0-0 draw with Edinburgh City, 1-0 at Kelty and last week's 0-2 home defeat by Dumbarton. That is a side that has been winning tight and has kept things close, with two clean sheets and five conceded across the five. It is also a side whose scoring has dried up a bit lately. The away games in this spell, at Forfar and Kelty, were both won.
The common opponents
The most useful comparison comes from the three clubs both sides have faced recently: Dumbarton, Forfar Athletic and Kelty Hearts. Stirling are unbeaten against them, two wins and a draw, scoring eight and conceding four. Elgin won two and lost one, scoring three and conceding three. Dumbarton is the starkest case: Stirling drew at their place, while Dumbarton went to Elgin and won 2-0. Against Forfar, Stirling won by three and Elgin by one. On this measure Stirling look the stronger side, and not narrowly.
The August meeting
And yet. The one meeting between these clubs this season finished Elgin City 4-0 Stirling Albion on 29 August. That is not a result you can wave away, and it is the single loudest fact in favour of the visitors. It is also one match, played at Elgin, the better part of three months ago, before either side's current run began.
Verdict
This is finely balanced, and the evidence is thin in both directions. The identical form lines are a red herring. What separates them is how they got there. Stirling have been the more productive side against shared opposition and have won both their recent home games. Elgin have been the more economical, winning two away games by a single goal, and they hold that comprehensive August win.
My view is a narrow Stirling Albion home win, with a draw the most likely alternative. Elgin's recent scoring at their best has been modest outside the Clyde game, and Stirling at Forthbank have been finding the net freely. What would change my mind is the head-to-head. If August's 4-0 reflected a genuine gap between the sides rather than one bad afternoon for Stirling, Elgin take this. One result is not enough to tell, which is why I lean the other way, though not by much.