Three shared opponents put Hamilton ahead at Balmoral
Cove Rangers host an unbeaten Hamilton Academical. Form, common opponents and the one previous meeting point one way, with a caveat.
By Barrie Moran,
Cove Rangers host Hamilton Academical at Balmoral Stadium on Saturday, and over their last five matches the two sides are heading in opposite directions. Cove have one win in that run. Hamilton have not lost. The more useful comparison sits underneath the form lines, because these two have recently faced three of the same opponents.
Three common opponents
Airdrieonians, East Fife and Ross County have all played both clubs since the middle of September. The results line up like this:
- Airdrieonians: Cove won 1-0 away. Hamilton won 2-1 away.
- East Fife: Cove drew 1-1 at home. Hamilton won 2-1 at home.
- Ross County: Cove lost 0-2 at home. Hamilton drew 1-1 away.
Hamilton come out ahead against two of the three and level against the other. Ross County is the sharpest contrast. Cove lost at home without scoring, while Hamilton went there and came back with a point. Common opponents are a crude measure, because dates and venues differ, but they are less crude than reading two form lines in isolation.
Cove Rangers
Cove have scored five and conceded nine across the last five. Even that scoring total flatters them a wee bit. Three of the five came in a 4-3 defeat at Queen of the South. Take that afternoon out and Cove have two goals in four matches, with blanks in two of them. At Balmoral in this run they have a draw with East Fife and a defeat by Ross County, so no home win.
The case for Cove is their most recent result. The 1-0 at Airdrieonians was their only win and their only clean sheet in the five, and it came last time out. It is one match, but it shows what a Cove win probably looks like: tight, low-scoring, nothing given away.
Hamilton Academical
Hamilton have three wins and two draws, with nine scored and four conceded. They have scored in all five and conceded in four. The wins came first. The last two outings were 1-1 draws, at Ross County and then at home to Montrose. That is a mild cooling rather than a wobble, though a home draw with Montrose is the least convincing result in the run.
The previous meeting
There is only one recent meeting to go on. Hamilton won 1-0 at home on 29 August. One match, at the other ground and more than two months ago, tells us little beyond the fact that it was close. It does fit the pattern of Cove's better days being low-scoring ones.
Verdict
Hamilton are the side I lean towards. They are unbeaten in five, they score in every game, and they have done better than Cove against shared opposition. Cove's home results in this run give little reason to think Balmoral will change that on its own.
What would change my mind is evidence that the Airdrie result was a turning point rather than a one-off. If Cove keep Hamilton out for the first hour, the game becomes the kind they won a week ago. Hamilton's two straight draws also suggest they are not putting sides away as readily as they were earlier in the month. I expect a tight one, with Hamilton the likelier winners but not by much.