Airdrieonians v Queen of the South: the home side's blunt run at home
Airdrieonians have scored freely away and barely at all at home. Queen of the South's points have come on the road. A League One preview of an awkward fixture for the hosts.
By Barrie Moran,
If you only looked at the top line, you would have these two as much of a muchness. Airdrieonians and Queen of the South have both conceded 11 goals in their last five league matches. Neither has much to shout about in the results column. But split the recent record by venue and it tells a story that should worry the side playing at the Excelsior Stadium on Saturday.
Airdrieonians: good on the road, flat at home
Airdrieonians' last five read W L L L D, with six goals scored and eleven conceded and no clean sheets. The detail that matters is where the results came. Their two home games in that run were a 1-2 defeat to Hamilton Academical and a 0-1 defeat to Cove Rangers. Their better days were away from home: a 2-2 draw at East Kilbride and, most recently, a 3-2 win at Alloa Athletic.
So the goals are there. They just have not been turning up at home. The heaviest blow, a 4-0 loss at Ross County, was also on the road, which makes the away record a rollercoaster rather than a strength. Still, a side that scores three at Alloa has something to work with. The problem is the other end, where they have not kept a clean sheet in any of the five.
Queen of the South: two clean sheets and one bad afternoon
Queen of the South's sequence is L L W L W, with four scored and eleven conceded. That goals-against figure is badly skewed by one result, a 7-1 home defeat to Ross County. Seven of the eleven came that afternoon.
Look past it and a pattern emerges. Both wins were 1-0 away from home, at Peterhead and at Alloa Athletic, and those are their two clean sheets. When Queens win, they win tight and on the road. The worry is the scoring. They have not managed more than one goal in any of the five, and the last two have been defeats, 2-0 at East Fife and 1-2 at home to East Kilbride.
Common opponents and the only meeting
Both sides have played Alloa Athletic, East Kilbride and Ross County recently. Airdrieonians took a win, a draw and a defeat from those games with five scored and eight conceded. Queen of the South took a win and two defeats with three scored and nine conceded. Airdrie edge it, mostly on the strength of the 2-2 at East Kilbride, where Queens lost.
The only previous meeting this season went the other way. Queen of the South won 2-1 at home on 5 September. That is one match, two months ago, and it should not carry much weight on its own.
The verdict
This comes down to which game breaks out. An open one with goals at both ends suits Airdrieonians, who have shown they can score three and who have the better record against shared opponents. A low-scoring one suits Queen of the South, whose wins have been built on keeping things at 1-0 away from home.
Airdrie's home form points to the second. Scoring once against Hamilton and not at all against Cove is not the profile of a side that blows visitors away. My view, for what it is worth, is that Queen of the South come away with something, and I would not be surprised if it were all three points.
What would change my mind is an early Airdrie goal. Queens have not shown they can chase a game, and if the hosts bring their away scoring home for once, the balance tips firmly their way.