Stenhousemuir face a Dunfermline side unbeaten in five
Stenhousemuir's recent form against Dunfermline's sturdy defence, the shared opponents that separate them, and why goals may be scarce at Ochilview Park.
By Harvey Watkins,
The thing that shapes this Tuesday night fixture is Stenhousemuir's goalscoring. They have one goal in their last three matches, and those three games have brought no wins. Dunfermline arrive at Ochilview Park unbeaten in five and have conceded twice in that time. On recent evidence the visitors carry the stronger case, though the margins in both sides' results have been narrow enough to leave plenty open.
Stenhousemuir's run has turned
A month ago Stenhousemuir looked solid. They beat Arbroath 1-0 at home on 19 September and won by the same score at Ayr United six days later. Both were clean sheets.
The three matches since have gone the other way. They lost 2-0 at Inverness, drew 1-1 with Raith Rovers at home, and were beaten 3-0 at Partick Thistle on Saturday. That makes six goals conceded in three games, after none in the previous two, and a single goal scored. Across the five matches they have scored three and conceded six.
Home form offers a little encouragement. Their two most recent games at Ochilview Park produced a win and a draw, with one goal conceded. It is a small sample, but it is the more favourable half of their recent record.
Dunfermline keep it tight
Dunfermline's sequence reads W D D D W, and its defining feature is how few goals their matches produce. They have kept three clean sheets in five and have not conceded more than once in any of them. Six goals in total have been scored across those five games.
The flip side is that they have not scored more than once either. Four goals in five matches is modest, and three draws suggest a side that is hard to beat rather than one that pulls away from opponents. Their 1-0 win at Queen's Park on Saturday was typical: enough, and no more.
Away from home they have been particularly steady. Wins at Greenock Morton and Queen's Park, both 1-0, and a 1-1 draw at Ayr United amount to one goal conceded in three trips.
Shared opponents point both ways
Both clubs have played Partick Thistle and Ayr United recently, which allows a rough comparison. Against Partick, Dunfermline drew 1-1 at home while Stenhousemuir lost 3-0 away. Against Ayr, the picture flips: Stenhousemuir won 1-0 away at Ayr United, where Dunfermline could only draw 1-1.
Different venues and different dates limit how much weight these results can bear. But they are a reminder that Stenhousemuir's recent slump follows a stretch in which they were winning tight games of exactly the kind this one may become.
How it may unfold
- Stenhousemuir have scored once in their last three matches.
- Dunfermline have conceded two goals in five, and none in three of those games.
- Neither side has scored more than once in any of its last five matches.
The overall pattern points towards a low-scoring evening. Dunfermline's defensive record and unbeaten run make them the more convincing side on form, and the view here is that they are slightly more likely to come away with something than not.
Yet a draw would fit the visitors' recent habits, and Stenhousemuir have already shown this season that a single goal and a clean sheet can win them matches. If they rediscover the solidity of September, the gap between these two may prove smaller than the last three weeks suggest.