Leaky Stenhousemuir meet blunt Queen's Park at Ochilview
Both sides arrive on four straight defeats, but they have lost in very different ways. Form, shared opponents, the August meeting and a verdict.
By Barrie Moran,
Two sides who have lost their last four matches meet at Ochilview on Saturday, and it would be easy to call it a meeting of equals. It is not quite that. Stenhousemuir and Queen's Park have each scored four goals in their last five, but they have arrived at their losing runs by very different routes, and that difference is the most useful thing to know about this one.
Stenhousemuir: open at the back
Stenhousemuir have conceded 12 in their last five and kept no clean sheets. The run began with a 1-1 draw at home to Raith Rovers. Then came a 3-0 defeat at Partick Thistle, 0-1 at home to Dunfermline and 0-3 at home to Livingston: three matches without a goal. On 7 November they finally found the net three times at Greenock Morton and still lost 4-3. That was the one afternoon in the run when they looked capable of hurting anyone, and it got them nothing.
Queen's Park: tight but toothless
Queen's Park have conceded 8 over the same stretch, also without a clean sheet, but their defeats have been narrower. They lost 1-0 at home to both Dunfermline and Partick Thistle, 2-0 at Greenock Morton and 3-2 at Ayr United. Their only win in the five was on 13 October, 2-1 at home to Inverness. Their goals have come in pairs or not at all: two against Inverness, two at Ayr, none in the other three.
The three clubs both have faced
This is the detail I keep coming back to. Both sides have played Dunfermline, Greenock Morton and Partick Thistle in this spell, and both lost all three. Stenhousemuir scored 3 and conceded 8 in those games. Queen's Park scored 0 and conceded 4.
Put plainly, Queen's Park stay in games against those clubs but cannot land a blow. Stenhousemuir can land one, every one of their goals in those matches coming at Morton, but they get opened up in return. Two of Queen's Park's three defeats in that set were by a single goal. None of Stenhousemuir's were.
The August meeting
There is only one recent meeting to go on. On 22 August Stenhousemuir won 2-0 at Queen's Park. That is a clean win on the road, and it should not be waved away, but it is one match, played nearly three months ago, before either side fell into its current run. It tells you Stenhousemuir can beat this opponent. It does not tell you much about how either side is playing now.
Verdict
My lean, and it is a lean rather than anything firmer, is that Queen's Park avoid defeat. The reasoning is simple enough. Stenhousemuir have not kept a clean sheet in five and have shipped goals at home to Livingston and Dunfermline. Queen's Park's problem has been scoring against the stronger clubs they have faced, but against Ayr United and Inverness they managed two each time. A defence conceding as freely as Stenhousemuir's is closer to the latter than the former.
What would change my mind is the August result. If Stenhousemuir play the way they did that day, rather than the way they have played since, the side that won 2-0 away from home is perfectly capable of doing it again at Ochilview. And if the Stenhousemuir attack that scored three at Morton turns up, Queen's Park's habit of drawing a blank could cost them. Neither side has given much reason for confidence lately, so this is one to hold views on lightly.