East Kilbride's home form the only doubt against Alloa
East Kilbride's form, shared opponents and the September meeting all favour them, but their recent home results give Alloa Athletic an opening.
By Barrie Moran,
East Kilbride go into Saturday's League One meeting with Alloa Athletic in the better shape of the two, and it is not especially close. They have two wins, two draws and a single defeat from their last five, with nine goals scored and six conceded. Alloa have lost four of their last five. The one exception was a 3-0 win at East Fife on 17 October, and they have lost all three since.
One detail in Kilbride's run stops this being straightforward, and it is where their results came from.
Kilbride travel better than they host
Both of East Kilbride's wins in that spell came on the road: 3-0 at East Fife on 3 October and 2-1 at Queen of the South last weekend. Their three most recent home matches read 2-2 with Airdrieonians, 1-1 with Montrose and 1-2 against Ross County. That is not a collapse. They scored in every one of them. But there were no wins, and they conceded in all three. The K-Park Training Academy has not been the stronghold the overall form line suggests.
That is the one thing Alloa can take from the record. It is not much, but it is something.
Alloa's slide
Alloa's form reads L L L W L. Three of those defeats came at home: 0-3 to Hamilton Academical, 0-1 to Queen of the South and 2-3 to Airdrieonians. They tell us little about how Alloa travel. The two away results in the run sit at opposite ends: the win at East Fife, and a 2-1 defeat at Peterhead on 31 October. There is a bit of encouragement in scoring twice against Airdrieonians last Saturday. They still lost, though, and three defeats in a row is three defeats in a row.
Common ground
Both sides have recently played Airdrieonians, East Fife and Queen of the South, which gives a rare like-for-like comparison. Kilbride are unbeaten in those three games, with two wins and a draw, seven goals scored and three conceded. Alloa won one and lost two, scoring five and conceding four.
Look closer and the matches line up neatly. Both won 3-0 at East Fife, and for each side that is the only clean sheet in their last five. Kilbride won 2-1 at Queen of the South, while Alloa lost 1-0 at home to them. Kilbride drew 2-2 with Airdrieonians, while Alloa lost 3-2. The margins are small each time, but every one of them falls Kilbride's way.
The previous meeting
The sides met on 19 September, and East Kilbride won 2-1 away to Alloa Athletic. That was one game, two months ago, decided by a single goal. It points the same way as everything else without proving much on its own.
The verdict
East Kilbride should be favourites, and my view is that they win this. The form, the shared opponents and the September result all lean one way, and Alloa have not given much reason to think the slide is about to stop.
What gives me pause is the home run: three games without a win, conceding in each. If Alloa can score, and they managed two against Airdrieonians last week, a draw is well within reach. What would change my mind is evidence that Alloa can keep things tight away from home. Their last five offer only the one afternoon at East Fife on that front, so for now I would side with Kilbride, if not by much.