Falkirk's winning run meets Celtic's goals at Falkirk Stadium
Falkirk arrive on three straight wins and two clean sheets. Celtic bring more goals. Recent form, the August meeting and what PLZ members expect.
By Harvey Watkins,
The most telling thing about Falkirk going into Sunday is what has happened at the back. Their last two league matches, a 3-0 home win over Kilmarnock and a 1-0 victory at Aberdeen, both ended without conceding. Add a 2-1 win at Hibernian before that and they arrive on three straight wins, the best current run either side brings to Falkirk Stadium.
Falkirk's recent improvement
Over their last five matches Falkirk have won three, drawn one and lost one, scoring eight and conceding four. The defeat tempers things a little: a 2-1 home loss to Dundee FC on 10 October, which followed a 1-1 draw at St. Johnstone. The picture is of a side that has improved over the past few weeks rather than one that has been consistent throughout. They have also scored in all five, and they lost none of the three played away from home.
Celtic's goals, and where they came from
Celtic's record over the same span reads identically: three wins, a draw and a defeat. The difference is in the scoring. Thirteen goals in five matches is a strong return, though seven of them came in one afternoon, the 7-1 win over Hearts. In the other four they scored six, still a healthy rate but less striking.
At the other end they have been less tidy than Falkirk lately. They have conceded five and kept one clean sheet, at Motherwell. Their most recent outing was a 2-2 home draw with Dundee United, and the oldest of the five was a 1-0 home defeat by Rangers, the only one of the run in which they failed to score. Away from home they won both, at Motherwell and at Hibernian.
That Hibernian result offers a small point of comparison. Both sides won 2-1 away to Hibernian, eight days apart in October. It is a single shared opponent, so it should not carry much weight, but it is consistent with how evenly matched these two look on recent form.
The previous meeting
The most recent meeting was on 29 August, when Celtic won 2-1 at home. A one-goal margin suggests a competitive match, but it was one game, on Celtic's ground, and more than two months ago. It is thin evidence for Sunday.
What PLZ members are predicting
Twenty-five PLZ Soccer members have entered their predictions for this one in the PLZ Predictor. The split is heavily one-sided: 92 per cent have gone for a Celtic win, 8 per cent for Falkirk, and nobody has picked a draw. The most popular scoreline is 1-2, chosen by 12 members. These are our members' predictions, not odds and not a forecast.
How it might go
On their last five matches each, there is little to separate the sides. Falkirk bring the tighter recent defence and the longer winning run; Celtic bring more goals and two wins on the road. Something has to give between Falkirk's two clean sheets and a Celtic side that has scored in four of its last five, and Falkirk have found the net in every one of theirs.
My view, offered as no more than that, is that the form points to a closer match than a lopsided one, and a draw is a realistic outcome. A Celtic win would not be a surprise, but nor would Falkirk extending their run.