Raith Rovers v Dunfermline: unbeaten visitors come to Stark's Park
Dunfermline arrive unbeaten in five and won the last meeting, but Raith Rovers' recent away results and a shared set of opponents make this closer than it looks.
By Barrie Moran,
Dunfermline travel to Stark's Park on Friday night unbeaten in five matches, with three clean sheets and just two goals conceded in that run. Raith Rovers are not far behind on form, three wins from five, and come into the game off a 4-0 win at Arbroath. The most useful way to separate them is through the opponents they have shared, and that comparison leans towards the visitors.
Three common opponents
Both sides have faced Inverness, Stenhousemuir and Queen's Park in the past few weeks.
- Inverness: Raith Rovers lost 2-0 at home on 24 October. A week later Dunfermline beat them 5-1.
- Stenhousemuir: Raith drew 1-1 away. Dunfermline won 1-0 there.
- Queen's Park: Raith won 2-0 at home. Dunfermline won 1-0 away.
Across those three games Dunfermline took nine points and Raith took four. Venues differ, so the comparison is not exact, but the Inverness results stand out. Raith's home defeat to them is their only loss in five, and Dunfermline's 5-1 win is the biggest scoreline either side has produced in this spell.
Dunfermline's form
The visitors have won their last three, after back-to-back home draws with Livingston and Partick Thistle. Their defensive numbers are the strongest feature: two goals conceded in five, and both of their recent away matches finished 1-0. Outside the Inverness game, though, the goals have been modest. Take that 5-1 away and they scored three times in the other four matches. Their wins have tended to be narrow, which leaves room for a result to go against them on a night when the one goal does not come.
Raith Rovers' form
Raith have scored nine and conceded four in their last five, slightly more productive in front of goal than Dunfermline over the same stretch. Most of that has come away from home. They won at Greenock Morton and Arbroath and drew at Stenhousemuir, scoring seven and conceding two on the road. Their two most recent home matches split evenly: a 2-0 win over Queen's Park and the 2-0 defeat to Inverness. That is too small a sample to say much about how they fare at Stark's Park, but it does show they have been beaten at home recently by a side Dunfermline went on to handle comfortably.
The 4-0 at Arbroath was a strong response to that Inverness defeat, and two clean sheets in five suggest Raith are capable of keeping things tight when needed.
The previous meeting
The only recent meeting came on 28 August, when Dunfermline won 1-0 at home. One game, played more than two months ago and at the other ground, is thin evidence. It fits the pattern of Dunfermline's narrow wins, but it does not settle much on its own.
The view
On the shared opponents and the defensive record, Dunfermline have the slightly stronger case, and their recent wins have come without conceding. Raith have the home ground and a better scoring rate over their last five, and Dunfermline's margins have been fine enough that a single goal could change the outcome. My view is that this is likely to be tight and low-scoring, with the visitors marginally better placed, though a home win or a draw would not be a surprise.