Arbroath tells you most of what you need on Ayr and Raith
Ayr United host Raith Rovers at Somerset Park, and one shared trip a week apart sums up the gap between two very different defences.
By Barrie Moran,
If you want this fixture boiled down to a single comparison, look at Arbroath. Raith Rovers went there on 31 October and won 4-0. Ayr United went there on 7 November and lost 4-1. Same opponent, a week apart, and scorelines that could hardly sit further from each other. That is not the whole story of Saturday at Somerset Park, but it is a fair chunk of it.
Ayr United: goals at both ends
Ayr's last five read L W L D W, with seven scored and nine conceded, and not a single clean sheet among them. The wins have been decent ones: 2-1 away at Livingston and a 3-2 home win over Queen's Park. The defeats tell the other half. Partick Thistle won 1-0 at Somerset Park, and then came the 4-1 at Arbroath, which is the most recent thing Ayr have done.
The attacking side is not the worry. The Partick game is the only one in that run where they failed to score. The worry is that they have conceded in every one of them, and a side that needs to outscore everybody is relying on the harder of the two jobs.
Raith Rovers: tight, if not prolific at home
Raith's run is D W L D W, seven scored and three conceded, with three clean sheets. That is the number that jumps out against Ayr's zero. They beat Queen's Park 2-0, drew 1-1 at Stenhousemuir, won 4-0 at Arbroath and most recently drew 0-0 with Dunfermline.
There is a caveat worth stating plainly. At home, Raith failed to score against both Inverness, who beat them 2-0, and Dunfermline. This is a side whose defence has been more reliable than its attack, and the 4-0 at Arbroath flatters the latter a little.
The clubs both have faced
Both sides have played Arbroath, Dunfermline and Queen's Park, and the comparison is close to like for like: each played Dunfermline and Queen's Park at home and Arbroath away.
- Ayr United: won one, drew one, lost one, scored five, conceded seven
- Raith Rovers: won two, drew one, lost none, scored six, conceded none
Ayr beat Queen's Park 3-2; Raith beat them 2-0. Ayr drew 1-1 with Dunfermline; Raith drew 0-0. The pattern holds across all three. Raith are no more dangerous than Ayr going forward. They simply do not give much away.
The last meeting
Raith won 2-0 at home when the sides met on 22 August. One match, months ago, is thin evidence on its own, but it points the same way as everything else here: Ayr did not score, and Raith did not concede.
Verdict
My view is that Raith Rovers should not lose this. The defensive gap between the sides is the clearest thing in their recent records, and it has shown up against the same opponents, not just different ones. I would not go further than that with any confidence, because Raith's home blanks suggest they are not a side that runs up scores, and a draw would not surprise me.
What would change my mind is Ayr keeping things tight early. Their record says they will score; their record also says they will concede. If they can get through a match without doing the second, the home wins over Livingston and Queen's Park show they have enough at the other end to hurt anyone. On the last five weeks, though, that is the thing they have not managed once.