One goal in five leaves Arbroath facing a steep climb against Ayr
Arbroath's scoring drought, Ayr United's patchy but sturdier run, the shared opponents and the August meeting, with a verdict on Gayfield.
By Barrie Moran,
One goal in five matches. That is the line that tells you most about Arbroath right now. It came in a 2-1 home defeat by Greenock Morton on 10 October. Since then they have lost 2-0 at Inverness, 1-0 at Livingston and 4-0 at home to Raith Rovers. Ayr United arrive at Gayfield on Saturday with problems of their own, but not that one.
Arbroath's run
Five played, five lost, one scored and twelve conceded, with no clean sheets. The Raith result last weekend was the heaviest of the lot, and it came at home. The 3-0 defeat at Partick Thistle on 3 October started the run, and nothing since has suggested it is easing.
Some of those defeats were narrow. A 1-0 loss at Livingston is not a hammering. But a side that is not scoring has to be near perfect at the back to take anything, and twelve conceded in five says Arbroath have been well short of that. The trouble is at both ends, and the goals-for column is the one that worries me more.
Ayr United's run
Ayr's last five read W L D W L, with six scored and six conceded, and no clean sheets either. It is an uneven record. They beat Queen's Park 3-2 last time out and won 2-1 at Livingston on 3 October, but they also lost 1-0 at home to both Stenhousemuir and Partick Thistle, and drew 1-1 with Dunfermline.
So this is not a side running away with anything. They have been beaten by a single goal twice at home and have not shut anyone out. What they have done is score in most of their matches, and that is the gap between them and Saturday's hosts.
Shared opponents
Both sides have played Livingston and Partick Thistle in their recent runs. Arbroath lost 1-0 at Livingston and 3-0 at Partick, scoring none and conceding four across the two. Ayr won 2-1 at Livingston and lost 1-0 at home to Partick, scoring two and conceding two.
It is a small sample, two matches each, and venues differ. Still, the Livingston comparison is fairly clean: same opponent, both away, and Ayr came home with the win where Arbroath came home with nothing.
The last meeting
The most recent meeting was on 1 August, when Ayr United won 2-0 at home. One match is thin evidence, and Saturday is at Gayfield rather than Ayr, but it does nothing to argue against the pattern above.
Verdict
My view is that Ayr United are the likelier winners. Their form is mixed, but they score goals and have won away recently, and Arbroath's last five give little reason to think that changes this weekend.
Arbroath's case rests on one thing: Ayr have not kept a clean sheet in five, so the chance of a goal is there. If Arbroath get one, especially early, Ayr's own record shows they can be held or edged by a single goal. Until Arbroath start finding the net again, though, it is hard to make the argument for them.