Falkirk's form meets Celtic in a shortened MatchDay 12
Celtic's trip to Falkirk leads a four-match round, with third against fifth at Tannadice and two meetings near the foot of the table.
By Harvey Watkins,
MatchDay 12 is a four-match round, with two fixtures moved to another week, and the one carrying most weight is on Sunday at Falkirk Stadium. Celtic lead on 28 points from 11 games, four ahead of Rangers, who do not appear in this weekend's fixtures. A Celtic win would stretch the gap to seven, at least until Rangers play again.
Falkirk's run against the leaders
The case for this being more than a formality is Falkirk's recent form. They have won their last three and conceded only four goals in their last five, the fewest of any side in the division over that stretch. Celtic have scored 13 in their last five, more than anyone else, so this is the best recent defence against the best recent attack.
Celtic's own run is strong rather than flawless: three wins, a draw last time out and a defeat before that. The last meeting finished Celtic 2-1 Falkirk, which was close enough to suggest the gap between the sides is not as wide as the table might imply. A Falkirk win would lift them to 18 points and into fourth if Dundee United do not win at Tannadice.
Third against fifth at Tannadice
Dundee United are unbeaten in five, with three wins and ten goals scored against five conceded. Hearts sit third on 20 points but have been looser, scoring 11 and conceding 10 in their last five, and drawing their most recent game. The last meeting was Hearts 4-0 Dundee United, a heavy result, though United's current run reads differently.
The stakes are plain. A United win takes them to 19, one behind Hearts and above Dundee. A Hearts win takes them to 23, a point behind Rangers.
Pressure near the bottom
Kilmarnock and Hibernian are level on eight points, with Kilmarnock bottom on a goal difference of minus 15. Kilmarnock host St. Johnstone having lost their last two and conceded 12 in their last five. St. Johnstone are eighth on 13 and without a win in three, but they have lost only once in five, with three draws. Neither side has scored much lately, six and five goals in their last five respectively, yet the last meeting finished 4-3 to St. Johnstone. A Kilmarnock win would take them to 11.
Motherwell are tenth on nine points and without a win in five, a draw last time ending a run of four defeats. St. Mirren are seventh on 14, which flatters a side that has conceded 13 in their last five, the most in the division, though they are unbeaten in two. The last meeting was St. Mirren 3-3 Motherwell. A home win would bring Motherwell within two points of their visitors.
What PLZ Predictor members expect
These are predictions from PLZ Soccer members in the PLZ Predictor, and the samples are small. All 19 entrants backed Celtic at Falkirk, with 12 going for 1-2. For Dundee United v Hearts, 56 per cent of 16 entrants chose a draw, and 1-1 was the most common score with seven picks. Kilmarnock v St. Johnstone split 37 per cent draw, 37 per cent away and 26 per cent home from 19 entries, with 1-1 picked six times. Motherwell v St. Mirren drew 37 per cent for the home side, with 2-1 the most common score at five.
My own view is that the unanimity at Falkirk sits awkwardly with Falkirk's defensive record. Celtic have the stronger form, but recent results give Falkirk more of a case than a clean sweep of predictions would suggest.