Annan's August win over Dumbarton feels a long time ago
Annan Athletic won the only meeting this season, but five straight defeats since early October make Dumbarton the side to back at The Rock.
By Barrie Moran,
On 29 August, Annan Athletic beat Dumbarton 2-0. It is the only meeting between the sides this season, and if you knew nothing else you would make Annan the team with the upper hand going into Saturday's League Two match at The Rock. But there is a lot else, and very little of it is kind to Annan.
Annan's five defeats
Annan have lost their last five: 0-1 at home to Stirling Albion, 1-6 at home to Stranraer, 4-1 at Clyde, 3-2 at Spartans and 1-2 at home to Kelty Hearts. That run has cost them 16 goals against five scored, with no clean sheet anywhere in it.
The detail worth noticing is the shape of those defeats. The Stranraer and Clyde results were heavy, but the two most recent were lost by a single goal, and Annan scored in both. Against Spartans they found the net twice and still came away with nothing. That reads less like a side in freefall and more like one that has stopped the bleeding without yet finding a way to turn a close game. Whether that is the start of a recovery or just a slightly more respectable way of losing, nobody can say yet. A sequence of L L L L L is still a sequence of L L L L L.
Dumbarton's mixed autumn
Dumbarton's own record is nothing to frame. Their last five read W L D L W: a 2-1 home win over Forfar Athletic, a 2-1 defeat at Clyde, a 1-1 home draw with Stirling Albion, a 2-1 defeat at Edinburgh City and, last weekend, a 2-0 win at Elgin City. Seven scored, six conceded, one clean sheet. Their defeats have been narrow, and so has most of their football, by the look of those scorelines. Almost every game has been decided by a goal either way.
The Elgin result is the encouraging one. It was their only clean sheet of the run, and it came against the backdrop of an Annan side that has not kept one in five.
The common opponents
Both clubs have played Clyde and Stirling Albion recently, which gives a rough yardstick. Dumbarton lost 2-1 at Clyde, where Annan lost 4-1. Dumbarton drew 1-1 at home with Stirling Albion, while Annan lost 1-0 at home to the same side. Across those two games Dumbarton scored two and conceded three, Annan scored one and conceded five. It is a small sample, but it points one way.
Verdict
My view is Dumbarton win this, and probably not by much. Their own form suggests a tight game rather than a rout, and Annan's last two defeats suggest they have become harder to beat comfortably.
What would change my mind is the August result itself. Annan kept Dumbarton out that day and scored twice, so they have done it before. If Annan bring the defensive steadiness of that afternoon and pair it with the goals they found against Spartans, the 2-0 is less of an outlier and more of a reminder. On the more recent evidence, though, it looks like the outlier, and I would want to see Annan stop losing somewhere before believing otherwise.