Five defeats and fifteen conceded as Annan Athletic host Kelty Hearts
Annan's losing run has turned from narrow to heavy, while Kelty Hearts have alternated wins and defeats. A look at the form, the common opponents and the one previous meeting.
By Barrie Moran,
Annan Athletic have lost their last five matches, and the way they have been losing has changed. The first two defeats in that run were tight: 1-0 at Forfar Athletic on 19 September, then 1-0 at home to Stirling Albion on 3 October. Since then it has been 6-1 at home to Stranraer, 4-1 at Clyde and 3-2 at Spartans. That is 13 goals conceded in three games. A side that was losing by the odd goal is now losing by plenty.
Annan Athletic: scoring more, conceding far more
There is one thread of encouragement, and it is a thin one. Annan's goals across the five run 0, 0, 1, 1, 2. They have scored in each of their last three, and the two at Spartans was their best return of the run. The trouble is that the defence went the other way at the same time. Four scored and fifteen conceded, with no clean sheet, is the full picture, and the 6-1 at Galabank against Stranraer is the result that sits heaviest on it. Home has offered no refuge: the two home games in the run produced one goal for and seven against.
Kelty Hearts: win, lose, win, lose
Kelty's sequence reads L W L W L, which makes them hard to call and harder to praise. They lost 3-1 at home to Edinburgh City, won 2-0 at Spartans, lost 2-1 at Stirling Albion, beat Forfar Athletic 2-1 at home, then lost 1-0 at home to Elgin City last time out. Six scored and seven conceded, with one clean sheet. Two wins from five is not form that should frighten anybody. It only looks respectable next to Annan's.
The alternating pattern says Kelty are due a win. That is a pattern, not a law, and it would be daft to lean on it.
Common opponents and the only meeting
More useful is that both sides have played Spartans, Forfar Athletic and Stirling Albion in this spell. Kelty won 2-0 at Spartans, where Annan lost 3-2. Kelty beat Forfar 2-1 at home, where Annan had lost 1-0 away. Both lost to Stirling Albion, Kelty 2-1 away and Annan 1-0 at home. The venues differ, so it is a rough comparison, but Kelty took six points from those three opponents and Annan took none.
The sides met on 5 September, when Kelty Hearts beat Annan Athletic 2-1 at home. That is the only recent meeting, and a single one-goal win tells you little beyond the fact that it was close.
Verdict
My view is a Kelty Hearts win, and a narrow one. Their record is patchy, but it contains wins over two of the sides who beat Annan, and Annan have given nobody in the last five a reason to fear them. The goals-against column is the deciding detail: a team conceding three a game on average needs to score freely just to draw, and Annan have managed four in five.
What would change my mind is Annan reverting to the side that lost 1-0 twice in September and October. If they keep it tight, this becomes a game settled by one goal either way, and Kelty, who failed to score at home to Elgin City last time out, are not a side I would trust to find it. In that version of the afternoon, a draw is entirely plausible. On the evidence of the last three weeks, though, Annan have to show they can stop the leak before anyone should expect it.