Falkirk v Kilmarnock: two sides with identical recent form
Falkirk and Kilmarnock arrive with matching five-match records. A look at what lies beneath, plus how PLZ Predictor members expect it to go.
By Harvey Watkins,
On paper, Falkirk and Kilmarnock could hardly be closer coming into this one. Both have taken two wins, two draws and one defeat from their last five matches, and in the same order. Each won last weekend, lost the week before, and drew, won and drew in September. The goal tallies are near enough level too. Falkirk have scored seven and conceded six. Kilmarnock have scored six and conceded six.
The interesting part is where those results came from, because the two sides have arrived at the same place by different routes.
Falkirk's form
Falkirk have scored in all five of their recent matches, and they have conceded in all five as well. Four of those games ended with them letting in exactly one goal. That makes for steady, competitive football rather than anything one-sided, and it explains why three of the five finished with a single goal between the sides or level.
Their best work has come on the road. They are unbeaten in three away fixtures, drawing at Dundee United and St. Johnstone before winning 2-1 at Hibernian last time out. At home the picture is split: a 2-1 win over Hearts in mid-September, then a 2-1 defeat to Dundee FC earlier this month. Two home games is too few to read much into, but it does mean Falkirk's recent record here is less convincing than their record elsewhere.
Kilmarnock's form
Kilmarnock's numbers are more uneven. They kept clean sheets in successive away matches in September, drawing 0-0 at Aberdeen and winning 1-0 at Hibernian. Their other away trip ended in a 3-1 defeat at Rangers, which accounts for half the goals they have conceded across the five.
At home they have been more open. A 1-1 draw with Hearts was followed by a 3-2 win over Motherwell last weekend, their highest-scoring match of the run. They failed to score only once, in the goalless draw at Aberdeen.
Shared opponents
Two clubs appear on both lists, which offers a rough point of comparison. Both sides won at Easter Road, Falkirk by 2-1 and Kilmarnock by 1-0. Against Hearts, Falkirk won 2-1 at home while Kilmarnock drew 1-1 at home. That tilts slightly towards Falkirk, though a single result against a common opponent is a thin basis for any firm conclusion.
What PLZ Predictor members think
Twenty-six PLZ Soccer members have entered their predictions for this match in the PLZ Predictor. Half of them have gone for a Falkirk win and 46 per cent for a draw. Only 4 per cent, a single entry, have backed Kilmarnock. The most popular scoreline is 2-1, chosen by nine members. These are our members' own picks, made for fun, and a small sample at that. They say more about how readers see the fixture than about the teams themselves.
The view
With form this evenly matched, there is little to separate the sides. Falkirk's habit of scoring in every game counts for something, as does Kilmarnock's ability to keep things tight away from home. A close game seems the most reasonable expectation, and a draw would sit comfortably with what both teams have been producing. Either side could take it, and the result would surprise nobody.