Morton favoured at Cappielow, but August still stands in the way
Greenock Morton's away wins against Stenhousemuir's goal drought, with one awkward result from August that the form table cannot explain away.
By Barrie Moran,
Stenhousemuir have scored one goal in their last five matches. That is the number that frames Saturday at Cappielow, and on its own it would make this a straightforward preview. The trouble is the other number. When these two last met, on 8 August, Stenhousemuir won 2-0. In other words, a side that has struggled to find the net all autumn found it twice against Morton in the summer.
Morton's recent run
Greenock Morton come into this with three wins on the bounce: 2-1 at Arbroath, 2-0 at home to Queen's Park and a 3-2 win at Partick Thistle last weekend. Before that they lost 2-0 at Inverness and 2-1 at home to Raith Rovers, so the five-match record reads won three, lost two, eight scored and seven conceded.
That is a side scoring regularly rather than one keeping things tight. The Queen's Park game is their only clean sheet in the run. The win at Partick Thistle was the most eye-catching of the lot, but conceding twice there and against Raith suggests Morton can be got at. The question is whether Stenhousemuir currently have the means to do it.
Stenhousemuir's goal drought
Their last five read lost four, drawn one, one goal scored and ten conceded, with no clean sheets. The one goal came in a 1-1 draw at home to Raith Rovers on 17 October. Since then they have been beaten 3-0 at Partick Thistle, 1-0 at home to Dunfermline and 3-0 at home to Livingston, without a goal in any of them. The 2-0 defeat at Inverness before the Raith draw was another blank.
The Dunfermline result is the closest they have come to anything in recent weeks, and a one-goal home defeat is a thin thread to hang optimism on.
The common opponents
Both clubs have played Inverness, Partick Thistle and Raith Rovers recently, and the comparison is useful. Morton took a win from those games, scoring four and conceding six. Stenhousemuir took a draw, scoring one and conceding six.
So the goals against are identical. The gap between these sides is almost entirely at the other end of the pitch. Both lost 2-0 at Inverness. At Partick Thistle, Morton won 3-2 where Stenhousemuir lost 3-0. Against Raith, Stenhousemuir actually did better, drawing at home where Morton lost at home. That last detail is worth holding on to, because it is the second piece of evidence, alongside August, that Stenhousemuir are not simply outclassed in this matchup.
The verdict
Morton should be favourites, and I think they win. They are scoring, they have won on the road at Partick Thistle and Arbroath, and they are at home against a side whose attack has gone almost entirely quiet. The shared-opponent record says defensively there is little between the clubs, which points the decision at whichever side can actually put the ball in the net, and right now that is Morton.
The caveat is a real one. A single head-to-head is thin evidence, but it is the only time these sides have met this season and Stenhousemuir won it comfortably. Morton have also lost at home to Raith within the last month, so Cappielow is not a guarantee of anything.
What would change my mind is Stenhousemuir scoring first. Morton have not shown they can shut a game down, and a side that has gone this long without goals would have something to defend rather than chase. Short of that, my view is a Morton win, probably by a goal or two, with Stenhousemuir needing to rediscover whatever they had in August.