Livingston's tight defence meets Morton's winning run
Morton arrive at Almondvale on four straight wins, but the scorelines behind that run and September's 4-1 suggest Livingston are the side to beat.
By Barrie Moran,
Greenock Morton arrive at Almondvale on four straight wins, which on a quick glance makes them the side in form. Read the scorelines and it looks different. Morton have scored 12 and conceded 8 in their last five. Livingston have scored 6, conceded 3 and kept three clean sheets. Morton have been winning arguments by talking louder. Livingston have barely let anybody else get a word in.
Morton's run, match by match
The wins are real and they deserve credit: 2-1 away at Arbroath, 2-0 at home to Queen's Park, 3-2 away at Partick Thistle and 4-3 at home to Stenhousemuir last weekend. Before that came a 1-2 home defeat by Raith Rovers. Queen's Park is the only clean sheet in the five.
The Stenhousemuir result is the one that sticks. Morton needed four goals to beat a side that conceded three and scored none against Livingston a week earlier. Winning while shipping three at home is a habit that runs out eventually, and Morton have let in at least one in four of their five.
Livingston, solid and short of goals
Livingston's five reads 1-1 at Inverness, 3-0 at Stenhousemuir, 1-0 at home to Arbroath, 0-0 at Dunfermline and a 1-2 home defeat by Partick Thistle. The 3-0 is the only time they scored more than once. This is a side that wins narrowly or not at all, and two draws in the last four show the cost of that.
The Partick game matters here because Morton went to the same opponents and won. It is the one result that makes the case for the visitors.
Against the same opponents
Both sides have played Arbroath, Partick Thistle and Stenhousemuir recently. Morton won all three, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Livingston won two and lost one, scoring 5 and conceding 2. Morton have the better results, Livingston the better defence. Both teams beat Arbroath by a single goal, and the two clubs' different routes past Stenhousemuir tell you most of what you need to know about each.
The last meeting
There is only one recent meeting to go on, and it was emphatic. On 11 September Livingston won 4-1 at Morton. That was two months ago and before Morton's winning run, so it should not be stretched too far. It does, though, suggest that Morton's defence has struggled with this opponent before.
Verdict
My view is that Livingston are narrow favourites. They are at home, they won comfortably in the last meeting, and their defensive record is the most consistent thing either side brings to this fixture. Morton's run is a good one, but most of it was built on outscoring opponents. That approach is harder against a team that has conceded only three in five.
The case against me is plain enough. Morton have won four in a row and beat Partick Thistle where Livingston lost to them. If Morton's defence had a few more games like the Queen's Park one behind it, I would see this as even. On what has happened so far, I would take Livingston to avoid defeat, and a low-scoring home win is the likeliest shape of it. A draw would not surprise anybody who has followed Livingston this autumn.