Livingston's tight defence tests Inverness after Dunfermline
Inverness host Livingston in the Championship, and one shared opponent tells you most of what separates the two sides' recent form.
By Barrie Moran,
Livingston have not conceded in their last three matches. Inverness conceded five in their last one. That is the contrast that frames Saturday at the Caledonian Stadium, and it sharpens when you see who did the damage.
One opponent, two very different results
Both sides have been to Dunfermline recently. Livingston went on 17 October and came away with a 0-0. Inverness went on 31 October and lost 5-1. Same opponent, same ground, and as far apart as two away results can be. A single match does not define a team, but it is the one Inverness bring with them into this game, and it stands out because it is so unlike the rest of their run.
Before that, Inverness had looked solid. They beat Stenhousemuir 2-0 and Arbroath 2-0 at home, then won 2-0 at Raith Rovers. The one other defeat was a 2-1 loss at Queen's Park. Three clean sheets in five matches is a respectable return, and they have scored eight and conceded seven over that spell. Most of those seven arrived in the one afternoon at Dunfermline.
Livingston's run in reverse
Livingston's sequence goes the other way. Their run opened with two home defeats, both by 2-1, to Ayr United and Partick Thistle. Since then they have drawn 0-0 at Dunfermline, beaten Arbroath 1-0 and won 3-0 at Stenhousemuir. They have scored six and conceded four across the five, with three clean sheets, and all three of those clean sheets are their three most recent matches.
The caution is at the other end. The 3-0 at Stenhousemuir is the only match in that run where Livingston scored more than once. Their defence has carried them lately. Their attack has been steady rather than threatening.
The shared opponents
Both clubs have played Arbroath, Dunfermline and Stenhousemuir. Against those three, Livingston won two and drew one, scoring four and conceding none. Inverness won two and lost one, scoring five and conceding five.
Look closer and the gap is almost entirely Dunfermline. Against Arbroath, Inverness won 2-0 to Livingston's 1-0. Against Stenhousemuir, Inverness won 2-0 to Livingston's 3-0. Take the Dunfermline game out of the picture and there is little to choose between them. You cannot simply take it out, of course. It happened, and it was the most recent thing Inverness did.
The last meeting
When these sides met on 19 September at Livingston, it finished 2-2. That is more goals than either defence has tended to allow since. One match is thin evidence, but it does suggest neither side found the other easy to keep out.
The verdict
My view is that this is closer than the Dunfermline scoreline suggests, and I lean towards a draw. Livingston's recent defending makes them hard to beat. Their scoring makes them hard to back for a win away from home. Inverness have won both home matches in this run without conceding, and that is the strongest argument against my view.
What would change it is evidence that the 5-1 was a one-off rather than a crack. If Inverness defend at home the way they did against Stenhousemuir and Arbroath, they have the goals to edge this. If the Dunfermline afternoon was the start of something, Livingston's back line is well placed to make them pay for it.