Hamilton host the only side to stop Ross County's charge
Ross County bring a fierce scoring run to New Douglas Park, but the one side to hold them in five matches was Hamilton Academical, less than three weeks ago.
By Barrie Moran,
Ross County come to New Douglas Park on Saturday having won four of their last five, scoring 18 goals and conceding four. The one match in that run they failed to win finished Ross County 1-1 Hamilton Academical on 27 October. Everything else about this fixture points one way. That result is the reason it is not a foregone conclusion.
Ross County's run
The scorelines speak for themselves: 7-1 at Queen of the South, 4-0 at home to Airdrieonians, 2-1 at East Kilbride and 4-1 against Peterhead last weekend. The seven at Queen of the South flatters the overall tally a touch, but even without it this is a side that keeps finding goals. Four of the five games produced at least two for County, and the Peterhead result shows no sign of the run cooling.
The defensive record is less spectacular. One clean sheet in five, and that came against Airdrieonians. County concede, they just tend to score a lot more.
Hamilton's slide
Hamilton's last five read as a side heading the wrong way. They won 2-1 at Airdrieonians and 2-1 at home to East Fife, then drew with Ross County and Montrose, and last weekend lost 4-0 at Cove Rangers. Six scored, eight conceded, no clean sheets.
The Cove result is the worry. Before it, Hamilton had lost none of four and conceded once in each. Conceding four in one afternoon either marks a genuine dip or an outlier, and Saturday will say more about which. The home draw with Montrose before it did not inspire much confidence either.
The one meeting that matters
The 1-1 on 27 October is the only recent meeting between the clubs, so it carries a lot of weight on a small base. Hamilton went to County's ground and came away with a point when County were scoring freely against everybody else. That is no fluke to dismiss, but nor is one draw a pattern. The evidence is thin, and it should be treated that way.
Both sides have also played Airdrieonians in this spell. Hamilton won 2-1 away, County won 4-0 at home. One game apiece tells you little beyond confirming what the wider form already shows: County have been beating teams more comfortably.
The verdict
My view is a Ross County win. Their attacking output over five games is a different level from Hamilton's, and Hamilton have not kept a clean sheet in that time, which is a poor combination against a side that has scored in every match of its run.
What would change my mind is evidence that the Cove defeat was a one-off and that the Hamilton who held County in October turn up again. They have home advantage this time, and they have already shown they can frustrate this opponent. If Hamilton keep it level deep into the second half, the October result starts to look less like an accident and more like a problem County have not solved.
Kick-off is 17:30 on Saturday.