League One: a two-horse race and a scramble behind it
Ross County and Hamilton Academical are 13 points clear of the field, while five sides sit within a point of each other below. A preview of MatchDay 14.
By Barrie Moran,
Thirteen points. That is the gap between Hamilton Academical in second and Montrose in third after 13 games of Scottish League One, and it shapes everything about MatchDay 14. There are two leagues in this division just now, and only one of them has a title in it.
The race at the top
Ross County lead on 35 points, Hamilton sit two behind on 33, and both are unbeaten in their last five. The difference is in how. County have scored 19 and conceded 3 across that run. Hamilton have scored 9, conceded 4 and drawn their last two. One side is winning matches comfortably. The other is mostly avoiding losing them.
Hamilton can only go top on Saturday if they win and County lose. A Hamilton win and a County draw would leave them level on points, but County's goal difference of 37 is 16 better than Hamilton's, so the order would stay as it is.
County host Peterhead, who have lost three of their last five. Hamilton travel to Cove Rangers, bottom of the table on 9 points. Both leaders won their most recent meeting with Saturday's opponents by a single goal: County 1-0 at Peterhead, Hamilton 1-0 at home to Cove. Neither of those is the sort of margin that lets anyone treat the fixture as a formality.
My view is that County are the likelier of the two to take three points, because their scoring gives them more room for an off day. Hamilton's two draws suggest a side that can be held, and Cove won their last match. I would change my mind on Hamilton if they returned to the habit of winning that came before those draws. If Cove do hold them, the gap at the top opens to four.
Third place, and a side with a game in hand
Montrose are third with a goal difference of minus three, which tells you how far the top two have pulled away. They are unbeaten in three and host East Fife, who sit ninth on 12 points and won their last match. Montrose won 2-1 away when the sides last met.
East Kilbride are a further two points back on 18 and have played a game fewer than everyone except Cove. They have not won in three, and they go to Queen of the South, whom they beat 5-1 last time. That scoreline says something about Queen of the South's season. They have won three of their last five yet carry a goal difference of minus 23, the worst in the division by a distance.
The crowd below
From fifth to ninth, five clubs are covered by a single point. Peterhead, Airdrieonians and Queen of the South have 13 each. Alloa Athletic and East Fife have 12. Cove are four further back with a game in hand.
That makes Alloa Athletic v Airdrieonians the fixture of the afternoon outside the top two, though not for the quality of the form. Alloa have lost two in a row and four of their last five. Airdrieonians have lost three straight. Airdrieonians won 1-0 the last time these two met. A win for Alloa would take them to 15 and above that cluster on 13, at least until the other results come in. A defeat would leave them looking up at most of the division. With neither side winning lately, a draw would not surprise me, and I would not argue hard for either team to win.