Hamilton host Ross County as League One's top two meet
MatchDay 15 previewed: second v first at New Douglas Park, East Kilbride and Montrose chasing, and four of the bottom six meeting each other.
By Barrie Moran,
Second against first at New Douglas Park
Four of Saturday's five League One matches kick off at 15:00, but the one that matters most comes at 17:30. Hamilton Academical, second on 33 points, host Ross County, top on 38. Nobody else is near them. East Kilbride are third on 21. This is the fixture where Hamilton can close in, or where Ross County can start to look out of sight.
The detail that tells the story is Hamilton's recent form set against their season. Their goal difference is +17, which is the record of a strong side. Over their last five, though, they have scored 6 and conceded 8, and they come into this without a win in three: a defeat last time out, and two draws before that. Ross County over the same stretch have four wins and a draw, with 18 scored and 4 against. One of these sides is second on the strength of what it did earlier. The other is still doing it.
The last meeting ended Ross County 1-1 Hamilton Academical, so Hamilton have shown they can take something off the leaders. My view is that Ross County avoid defeat. What would change it is Hamilton producing anything like the form that built that goal difference. Their last five are not that.
The chasing pair
East Kilbride and Alloa Athletic is the clearest look on paper. East Kilbride are third with a game in hand on the sides around them, and won the last meeting 2-1 at Alloa. Alloa have lost their last three and sit ninth on 12. Their last five read four defeats and a win, so evidence of a turn is thin.
Montrose, fourth on 20, have no win in two and have conceded 9 in their last five while scoring 6. Their trip to Cove Rangers and Montrose looks less comfortable than the table suggests. Cove are bottom on 12 with a game in hand, but they have won their last two, and only Ross County have scored more over their last five than Cove's nine. Montrose won the last meeting 2-1. I would not lean on that.
The scramble below
From fifth to tenth, Airdrieonians on 16 down to Cove and Alloa on 12, there is very little in it. Two of the matches are straight contests within that group.
Airdrieonians and Queen of the South have each conceded 11 in their last five. Queen of the South have scored 4 in that run, the fewest in the division, and their goal difference of -24 is the worst in League One. They did win the last meeting 2-1, and Airdrieonians have just won for the first time after three straight defeats. A wee bit of momentum on one side and a better head-to-head on the other. I would make Airdrieonians slight favourites at home, and not by much.
East Fife and Peterhead completes the round. East Fife have won their last two and sit sixth on 15. Peterhead are seventh on 13, level with Queen of the South, and their last five alternate defeat, win, defeat, win, defeat. Reading that as "their turn" would be daft, though it is tempting. Peterhead won the last meeting 2-1. East Fife's current run carries more weight than one previous result, and that is where my view sits.