Shared opponents point towards Elgin City against Dumbarton
Elgin City and Dumbarton have faced three of the same sides lately, and that record says more than the September meeting Dumbarton won.
By Barrie Moran,
Dumbarton won the first meeting between these sides this season, 2-1 at home on 5 September. It is the only recent head-to-head, and it is two months old. A lot has happened since, and most of it has gone Elgin City's way.
Three opponents in common
Over their last five matches, both clubs have played Forfar Athletic, Clyde and Edinburgh City. Put the results side by side and the gap is plain.
- Elgin City: won 2-1 at Forfar, beat Clyde 6-2 at Borough Briggs, drew 0-0 at home with Edinburgh City. Seven points from nine.
- Dumbarton: beat Forfar 2-1 at home, lost 2-1 at Clyde, lost 2-1 at Edinburgh City. Three points from nine.
The fair objection is venue. Elgin had two of those three at home. Dumbarton had two of the three away. That narrows the gap, but it does not close it. Elgin put six past Clyde on 3 October, and a week later Clyde beat Dumbarton.
Elgin since the Stranraer result
Elgin have scored 10 and conceded 8 in their last five, which looks loose until you see that five of the eight came in one afternoon. That was the 5-1 home defeat by Stranraer on 19 September. Since then they are unbeaten in four. They have conceded once in their last three matches, with clean sheets against Edinburgh City and, most recently, in a 1-0 win at Kelty Hearts.
The goals at the other end are less reliable than the total suggests. Take away the six against Clyde and Elgin have four in their other four games. They are winning tight matches rather than running away with them. Their home results in this run are a 5-1 defeat, a 6-2 win and a goalless draw, so Borough Briggs has not exactly settled into a pattern.
Dumbarton's run has turned
Dumbarton began this stretch well, beating Spartans 3-0 and Forfar 2-1, both at home. They have not won since. Over their last three they have scored three and conceded five, and their two away matches in this run have both been 2-1 defeats.
There is something to work with, though. Dumbarton have scored in all five of these matches, and they are the one side here who have beaten Elgin this season. They will not be short of a goal. The question is whether they can stop conceding two.
The verdict
My view is an Elgin City win, and a narrow one. The comparison against shared opponents is the strongest evidence on either side, Elgin's defence has tightened over the last month, and Dumbarton's away results in this run have been defeats. I would not put it any stronger than that. Elgin's scoring outside the Clyde game has been modest, and Dumbarton have found the net every time out.
What would change my mind is the September result. It was one match, at Dumbarton, before either side's current run began, so I do not give it much weight. If Dumbarton had a single away win in this stretch, I would treat it as a genuine toss-up. They do not, and on that basis Elgin are the side I lean towards.