Sunderland v Chelsea: poor form against a head-to-head edge
Chelsea arrive at the Stadium of Light in better form, but Sunderland have won both recent meetings, each by 2-1.
By Harvey Watkins,
Read on form alone, this looks like Chelsea's afternoon. They have taken three wins from their last five, scoring ten and conceding four. Sunderland have one win in that time, five goals scored and eight conceded. The complication is that Sunderland have beaten Chelsea in each of the two most recent meetings, and by the same score both times.
Sunderland's recent run
The sequence reads L L W D D, and the two defeats are the most recent results. A 3-1 loss at Coventry City on 31 October was followed by a 2-0 home defeat to Dinamo Zagreb on 5 November. Before that the run was steadier: a 1-1 draw away to Lech Poznań, a goalless draw with Leeds United at the Stadium of Light, then a 3-2 home win over Brentford.
The goals tell a narrower story than the results. Three of Sunderland's five came in the Brentford game, which leaves two in the other four matches. They have failed to score in two of their last three home games. At the other end, eight conceded in five, with a single clean sheet against Leeds, does not suggest a side that is keeping matches tight.
Chelsea's recent run
Chelsea's sequence is W D L W W, and their most recent result is the best one: a 2-0 home win over Man Utd on 31 October. That followed a 1-1 draw at Liverpool. The one defeat was a 2-0 home loss to Tottenham on 24 October, sandwiched between wins at Everton (2-0) and at home to Bournemouth (5-1).
Some caution is due with the scoring. Half of Chelsea's ten goals came in the Bournemouth match, and across the other four they averaged little more than a goal a game. The defensive numbers are sturdier: two clean sheets, and only the Tottenham match saw them concede more than once. Away from home in this run they have a win at Everton and a draw at Liverpool, without defeat in either.
Previous meetings
The two most recent meetings both went Sunderland's way, and both finished 2-1. In October 2025 they won 2-1 at Chelsea; in May 2026 they repeated the scoreline at the Stadium of Light.
That is a genuine point in Sunderland's favour, but it is two matches, and it should be weighed as such. Two narrow wins show Sunderland can beat this opponent. They do not by themselves establish a pattern, and neither result says much about how the two sides are playing now.
How it shapes up
The case for Chelsea rests on current form: more wins, more goals, fewer conceded, and a recent away record that holds up. The case for Sunderland rests on the head-to-head and on the fact that they have shown, against Brentford, that they can score freely at home when things go their way.
On balance, the recent evidence leans towards Chelsea, mainly because Sunderland's scoring has been thin outside one match and their defence has been conceding regularly. But the margins in Chelsea's form are not overwhelming once the Bournemouth result is set aside, and Sunderland have twice found a way past them by a single goal. A Chelsea win looks the likelier outcome to me, though not by enough to rule out Sunderland making it three in a row against them.