Champions League permutations as European giants fight for future in final round

Manchester City’s defeat to Paris St Germain left them needing a win over Club Brugge next week to avoid Champions League elimination.

Here, the PA news agency looks at the permutations affecting the five British teams and other European powerhouses in the final round of league phase matches.

Man City v Club Brugge

The top eight teams in the league phase qualify automatically for the last 16 while the teams from ninth to 24th enter a play-off round, with those from 25th downwards eliminated from Europe altogether next Wednesday.

City currently occupy that 25th place after a troubled start to the season and are two points adrift of the cut-off.

The good news for the 2023 winners comes with a winnable fixture on paper, at home to the Belgian champions, and a straightforward calculation – win and City will finish above Brugge on goal difference, taking all other considerations off the table and advancing them to the play-off.

A loss or even a draw, though, will see Pep Guardiola’s side eliminated.

PSV Eindhoven v Liverpool

Liverpool, by contrast, are top of the standings with seven wins from seven and their last-16 qualification guaranteed.

They are, indeed, secure in the top two – a boost to their last-16 seeding – and need only a point in manager Arne Slot’s native Netherlands to wrap up first place ahead of Barcelona.

Girona v Arsenal

Mikel Arteta also heads to his homeland needing a point, in his case to secure Arsenal’s top-eight place and skip the play-off round.

Victory could lift them from third to second, and a more favourable seeding separating them from Liverpool until the final, in the event that Barca drop points at home to a seventh-placed Atalanta side still needing to clinch direct qualification.

Aston Villa v Celtic

Villa lie one place and one goal outside the top eight, currently completed by Bayer Leverkusen, with Celtic a further point back but down in 18th.

Victory would lift the Premier League side into the top eight above Atalanta or Leverkusen if either drop points, AC Milan, Atletico Madrid or Inter Milan if they lose or even the Gunners if they were beaten with a significant goal difference swing. Atalanta’s tough assignment offers particular encouragement, while a draw would be enough if Leverkusen were to lose.

Celtic are the last team with a play-off place already secure but victory would see them seeded for that round – potentially at the expense of European powers such as Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Juventus or a Borussia Dortmund side who beat the Hoops 7-1 in October.

Even automatic qualification is technically still possible but would require seven results all to go Celtic’s way, including a draw between Lille and Feyenoord.

Work to do for European giants

Bayern and holders Real Madrid are in the same boat on 12 points in 15th and 16th respectively, needing victories to have a chance of automatic progression and making sure of a seeding in the play-off round as a minimum.

Bayern host pointless Slovan Bratislava but Real travel to Brest, a point ahead of them in 13th.

PSG’s win over Pep Guardiola’s men on Wednesday boosted their chances but, in 22nd place on 10 points, they would still be at risk should City win or Dinamo Zagreb upset AC Milan. A point against Stuttgart would effectively secure the French side’s place, given Dinamo’s poor goal difference.

Shakhtar Donetsk are the other team who could still break in with PSV, Brugge, Benfica, Sporting Lisbon and Stuttgart also vulnerable.