The Premier League is set for a thrilling end to the race for Champions League qualification.
Arsenal, Manchester City, Newcastle, Chelsea, Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa remain in contention for the four places behind Liverpool and here, the PA news agency looks at the key permutations.
How it stands
Beaten Champions League semi-finalists Arsenal, second in the league, have a six-point cushion over sixth-placed Forest. With the latter playing Chelsea on the final day, the Gunners need three points from games against Liverpool, Newcastle and relegated Southampton to make sure of a return to the competition.
Third-placed City lead Forest by three points and, with their goal difference better by 12, should be secure with two wins. Pep Guardiola’s side take on Southampton before games against Bournemouth and Fulham – two of the teams competing for eighth place, which would bring European qualification should City win the FA Cup final against Crystal Palace.
Newcastle and Chelsea, both on 63 points, meet on Sunday. While the winner will boost their Champions League hopes significantly, the loser could be overtaken immediately by Forest and will also be looking over their shoulder at Aston Villa, who are currently seventh on 60 points.
Villa’s inferior goal difference means they will need either Newcastle or Chelsea to drop at least four points, or City five, to have a realistic chance.
Key fixtures
Chelsea’s fortunes could have wide-reaching consequences, with games to come against two of their fellow challengers in Newcastle and Forest. Their other opponents Manchester United could also find their way into the Champions League, but only by winning the Europa League.
Arsenal and Newcastle meet on May 18 in the only other fixture between teams in the top-five race, though Mikel Arteta’s side have the champions to deal with first.
The teams from eighth to 11th are currently separated by two points in pursuit of a possible European place and City have both eighth-placed Bournemouth and 11th-placed Fulham to play, with the Cherries also hosting Villa on Saturday.
Calculators at the ready…
There is a scenario in which all six teams battling for Champions League qualification finish on either 69 or 70 points:
– Forest and Villa both win all their remaining games to reach 70 and 69 respectively.
– Chelsea lose to Forest but beat Newcastle and Manchester United to finish on 69.
– Newcastle lose to Chelsea but beat Arsenal and Everton to reach 69.
– Arsenal win one and lose one of their other two fixtures to finish on 70 points, or draw both for a total of 69.
– City win two games and lose one to reach 70, or win one and draw two to finish on 69.
That would see Forest qualify on 70, with Arsenal’s superior goal difference surely seeing them safe even if they finish on 69 points.
City would be secure with 70 and have a smaller edge on goal difference over others who could finish on 69.
Newcastle and Chelsea would then be separated by goal difference – or even, as is the case currently, goals scored – for the final spot. Villa would miss out on goal difference barring a swing of at least 15 in their favour.
