Celtic face losing about £20million – and potentially much more – after dropping out of the Champions League.
A penalty shoot-out defeat by Kairat Almaty in Kazakhstan – after a goalless 210 minutes of action – will prove costly on and off the park.
Celtic have the chance to make up some of the losses with a strong Europa League run and – based on their two performances against Kairat – might have struggled to accrue additional prize money in the elite competition.
But making a concerted effort to build on last season’s near-miss against Bayern Munich in the knockout phase could have reaped extra rewards.
Here, we break down the financial costs of their play-off setback.
Entry Fee
Champions League qualification is worth a flat rate of £16million compared with the Europa League fee of £3.7m. Celtic will also bank a similar amount for participating in the Champions League play-offs, meaning they are about £8.5m worse off as a starting point.
Performance Bonuses
In general there is about four-and-a-half times the amount of performance-related payments open to Champions League teams as opposed to the Europa. A Champions League win is worth £1.8m while a draw banks £600,000. The equivalent figures in the Europa League are £390,000 and £130,000. Based on last season’s results for Celtic and Rangers, the Hoops face losing out on about £5.5m from results alone.
Each place above the bottom in the Champions League is worth £235,000 as opposed to £65,000 in the lesser tournament. There are also bonuses for top-eight and top-16 finishes in each. Celtic could make up some losses with a higher finish. Given Rangers finished in the Europa League top eight last season, Celtic could limit the difference to about £1.2m.
A place in the Champions League knockout play-off – where Celtic finished last season – will be worth £860,000. Reaching the Europa League quarter-finals like Rangers last season will be worth £3.9m.
In total, Celtic will miss out on potential earnings but can potentially make more money given the lower standard of opposition. But based on last season’s performances of themselves and Rangers, they would miss out on £3.7m.
Broadcasting and ranking income
Again, the Champions League offers four-and-a-half times the pool of money available for the so-called “value pillar” of participation money. Income depends on the country’s broadcasting value, the number of clubs competing from each country, and clubs’ recent performances in Europe. Each place above the bottom in the Champions League is worth £1.1m as opposed to about £250,000 in the Europa. Celtic will likely be higher placed in the Europa but could still miss out on a roughly estimated sum of about £5m.
Gate receipts
The Celtic board will clearly need to make league stage tickets cheaper to reflect the status of the competition and attempt to pacify fans.
The last three-match package for Europa League tickets in 2021-22 was £72. The club charged £129 for the Champions League the following year.
Taking inflation into account and the extra game, there could be a £100 difference for each fan and Celtic might struggle to sell out given the scale of the anger over player recruitment.
Hospitality income loss will also be high. However, two extra games could reduce the impact. A rough estimate of losing out on £50 per seat would see Celtic miss out on £3m.
Conclusion
Based on the figures and last season’s performances, Celtic will miss out on just over £20m. However, there were far bigger riches at stake if Brendan Rodgers had been able to build on last season. Going one stage further to the last 16 would have netted the Scottish champions an extra £9.5m.
